With the US presidential election approaching, Bitcoin is poised for a major rally. Cryptocurrency media reports reveal that analysis from Standard Chartered Bank suggests the world’s largest cryptocurrency could surge 73 percent and return to its record high of $73,800. This bullish prediction is attributed to a variety of factors, including rising US Treasury yields, interest in bitcoin futures, and the fluctuating odds of a Trump presidency in 2024.
Bitcoin Expected to Rise in Price Ahead of US Elections
The report was published on Tuesday by Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Asset Research, Geoff Kendrick. The title of the report, ''Bitcoin Surge Looms as US Election Nears — Standard Chartered Predicts BTC Rally to $73,800'', is the focus of the report, suggesting the possibility of bitcoin surpassing its previous record high.
In the note, Kendrick sought to explain the recent Bitcoin price surge based on several market factors. He said, “The combination of factors means that a rally to an all-time high of $73,800 seems likely before the election.” Among the main drivers of the rally are the strengthening US Treasury yield curve, growing interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the possibility of Donald Trump winning the presidential election.
Kendrick also highlighted that institutional adoption of Bitcoin has increased, with good demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs. He focused on the increase in open interest for BTC, especially call options with strength above the $80,000 strike price on Deribit on the December 27 expiry. “And another 1,500 bitcoins were added to the open interest of the $80,000 call options over the past week,” he noted. Total options volume increased 44% in the five days through mid-March, indicating growing optimism about Bitcoin’s direction.
Institutional Capital Flows and Bitcoin ETFs Boost Confidence
Holding bitcoin directly has become less popular recently due to the rise of new products such as Bitcoin spot ETFs, which allow investors to invest in bitcoin without necessarily owning bitcoin. This has attracted institutional investors and further fueled Bitcoin's price rally.
Furthermore, the steepest yield curve in the US Treasury also makes Bitcoin more attractive as an investment than traditional assets. Therefore, when long-term bond yields rise, risk assets like Bitcoin become more attractive, especially when the economy is unpredictable. This situation, combined with the progress of Trump's campaign, opens the door for Bitcoin to rise into the stratosphere.
As he said, “Bitcoin momentum is being driven by both institutional inflows and increased call options activity,” emphasizing the $80,000 strike price. They believe that the value of Bitcoin price will not only reach but even surpass the previous record high.
The US election creates a level of uncertainty that typically favors risk assets. The probability of a Trump victory in the 2024 election recently rose to 56.3% on Polymarket. If Trump wins, there is a 70% chance that the Republicans will win a landslide victory in Congress, which could be very positive for bitcoin. But, again, Kendrick said, new asset adoption remains strong regardless of whether the election results are favorable or not.
Potential Bitcoin Price Scenario Based on Election Results
Standard Chartered’s forecast, however, is more than just a two-year outlook. The bank laid out potential scenarios and their interpretations based on the US election results. Specifically, Kendrick predicts that if Trump wins, the value of bitcoin could soar to $125,000. On the other hand, if Kamala Harris is elected president, the price of bitcoin could soar to $75,000 or even slightly lower in the short term if she wins.
These estimates are based on the assumption that the Republican administration will be more friendly to digital assets, causing users to demand Bitcoin to increase in price.
The good news is that digital currencies are slowly gaining recognition and acceptance, and institutions are showing more interest in investing in Bitcoin or related products. One is the volatile nature of the US Treasury yield curve - this is also positive for Bitcoin's popularity in a volatile environment.
Bitcoin Price Future Bright Amid Election Uncertainty
Finally, the macroeconomic situation and the upcoming US presidential election have led Standard Chartered to now predict a 73% increase in the price of Bitcoin. With Bitcoin currently trading at around $28,000, some believe it could easily surpass $73,800 – and this continued trend is encouraging traders and institutional clients.
Rising demand for bitcoin ETFs, new institutional money, and large open interest in call options suggest that bitcoin is on the verge of its next big bull run. Win or lose, Bitcoin’s growing adoption and its prospects as a hedge against other financial assets are unaffected.
With the stakes high in the election and people looking for risk assets due to uncertainty, Bitcoin's price is set for a major uptrend. The crypto giant is likely to attempt to repeat its previous high in the coming weeks or even record better results. "Bitcoin is on track to hit a new all-time high," said Standard Chartered's Kendrick.
