Recently, Celestia's DA network Shwap upgrade has been activated on the testnet and is expected to enter the mainnet Beta phase in November. Although TIA's fundamentals are strong and there are no problems with technical updates and iterations, the large-scale unlocking at the end of this month will directly double the market value. If the project party does not take measures to limit the chips flowing into the market, this may have a negative impact on the coin price.
On-chain data shows that the unrealized losses of short-term holders have not increased significantly, indicating that the pressure and fear of new investors are limited, thus reducing the possibility of the market entering a deep bear. At the same time, illiquid supply and supply to long-term holders are increasing, while liquidity supply and supply to short-term holders are decreasing, ensuring a low supply state in the market. But to fuel a bull market, the supply from short-term holders needs to increase rapidly.
In the market, Bitcoin has recently shown signs of breaking through, but further confirmation is needed. This requires a pattern of falling back without breaking, preferably with shrinking volume for confirmation. Despite the increase in market volume, Bitcoin's rise has encountered some resistance, indicating that the game between long and short sides is very fierce. There are multiple pressure points around $65,000. If this position is broken, it will inevitably be accompanied by a large amount of turnover. The high-level shock structure is still solid. If Bitcoin can stand above 70,000, it is expected to continue to rise and break new highs.
ETH is also linked to Bitcoin, but its exchange rate has weakened again and needs to wait for the bottom to be found. As for altcoins, although the current trend is linked to mainstream coins, the altcoin market has not yet officially started. Previously, it was suggested that MEME should not be chased high, but today the entire MEME sector has experienced a sharp correction. The current funding situation has not yet reached the peak of the bull market, so for most altcoins, chasing high still has certain risks. Continuing to deploy at a low level may be a wise choice.
As the US election approaches, data shows that Trump is far ahead of Harris in terms of support. Trump has a close relationship with Musk. In a previous interview program, Musk half-jokingly said that if Harris is elected, he might be sentenced to prison. Musk donated $75 million to support Trump's campaign. If Trump is elected, it will be an important positive for the cryptocurrency circle in the fourth quarter, and it has now become a key narrative in market expectations.
Regarding the Bitcoin spot ETF, data shows that the inflow was $371 million on October 15, while the Ethereum spot ETF had an outflow of $12.7 million. On-chain data shows that Tesla has transferred 11,509 Bitcoins (worth about $770 million) to a new address, which appears to be the entire Bitcoin reserve it holds.
Overall, although the market is fluctuating at a high level, it still maintains a relatively optimistic outlook. In the next few weeks, if the supply of short-term holders can increase significantly, coupled with the support of external macro factors, there may be further opportunities for growth.
