The crypto market experienced a dramatic fluctuation last night, with the price of Bitcoin first rushing to $67,950 and then quickly falling to $64,770.
Within 24 hours, $305 million worth of contracts in the market were forced to close, of which longs lost $182 million and bearish shorts lost $123 million.
This is another typical long and short explosion. In this extreme market, no matter you are bullish or bearish, as long as you play the contract, the final outcome is likely to be liquidation.
Last night, Bitcoin broke through $67,000 and then fell. Many people thought that this round of rising market was over and turned bearish. However, when the price of Bitcoin fell below $65,000, it began to rebound.
The reason for Bitcoin's strong performance may be that Bitcoin was affected by BlackRock's favorable financial report.
BlackRock's earnings report on Friday was very good, driving its stock price up for three consecutive days.
The most eye-catching part of the financial report is the spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The Bitcoin spot ETF's fund flow ranked first among all US ETFs in 2024, and although the Ethereum spot ETF was not launched until half a year later, it has already ranked seventh in the US fund flow.
Although the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices have experienced temporary declines, BlackRock's stock has basically been rising.
From the trend point of view, BlackRock's trend is very similar to Bitcoin. So it is not ruled out that while investors are chasing BlackRock, they are also more interested in Bitcoin.
Another factor that causes sharp market fluctuations is the impact of war.
The recent international situation may be the most tense moment in recent years. The four regions of NATO, North Korea and South Korea, the Middle East and the Taiwan Strait are all not peaceful.
However, the current impact of the war on prices is expected to be short-term, and the key lies in whether it will affect the US monetary policy.
If there is no substantial negative news, the market will rise back to the same level it fell.
At present, the market has basically stabilized, and Bitcoin is fluctuating above US$67,000.
Judging from the on-chain data, this continuous rise in Bitcoin did not trigger panic selling, and it was mainly investors who made short-term profits and left the market.
Long-term holders showed little reaction and were indifferent to the current price, suggesting they are still bullish on the subsequent trend.
Next, let’s take a look at the news and data that are worth paying attention to:
1. Tesla transferred 11,500 BTC for the first time in two years
On October 16, on-chain data from Arkham Research showed that Tesla transferred 11,509 bitcoins (worth approximately $770 million) to a new address.
This is the entire Bitcoin reserve held by Tesla.
To recap, in February 2021, Tesla announced the purchase of $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin and sold 10% of it in the second quarter of 2021.
By July 2022, Tesla had sold another 75% of its remaining holdings.
It is not clear yet what the specific reason for the transfer of Bitcoin was, and some community members speculated that Tesla might be preparing to sell these Bitcoins.
Tesla will report its third-quarter financial results after the market closes on Oct. 23.
According to Coingecko data, the total number of bitcoins held by companies is about 360,000, with Tesla ranking fourth.
Ranked first is MicroStrategy (about 252,000 coins), second is Marathon Digital Holdings (26,842 coins), third is Grayscale (15,449 coins), and fifth is Coinbase (9,183 coins).
2. Harris is more friendly than Biden on cryptocurrency policy, but not as friendly as Trump
U.S. presidential candidate Kamala Harris is friendlier on cryptocurrency policy than incumbent President Joe Biden, but not as friendly as Donald Trump, according to an analysis by Galaxy Research.
Harris has pledged to improve the regulatory environment for the U.S. crypto industry, but she has been cautious on issues such as taxation, Bitcoin mining and self-custody.
Trump, on the other hand, has explicitly supported Bitcoin mining and pledged to protect the right to self-custody. Nevertheless, Harris’ policies may be more constructive than Biden’s.
According to the latest Polymarket data, Trump's chances of winning have risen to 57.9%, while Harris' chances of winning have dropped to 41.8%, and Trump's lead has further widened.
3. Fed's Daly reiterated that interest rates may be cut one or two more times this year
According to the latest CME Fed Watch data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has risen to 94.1%.
After its first rate cut in September, the Fed has two more meetings in November and December.
Judging from the current situation, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of these two meetings.
In general, the market is brewing a big wave of momentum, and the conditions for Bitcoin's rise are now mature.
Next, we will focus on the results of the US election and when Bitcoin can break through the new high of $73,000.
If Trump comes to power, he will most likely fulfill his promise to make Bitcoin a national reserve asset for the United States. If Bitcoin becomes a reserve asset for the United States, central banks in other countries may follow suit.
Therefore, the trend of Bitcoin in the second half is worth looking forward to.
