According to Cointelegraph: Bitcoin’s recent rally has set the stage for potential new highs, with prices reaching $67,953 on October 15. Market sentiment suggests that BTC may surpass the psychological $70,000 level, marking a significant milestone in 2024. However, traders remain cautious as key resistance at $68,000 must be cleared to sustain upward momentum.
Bitcoin’s Price Reaches Highest Levels Since July
Bitcoin’s 6.17% surge on October 15 reflects renewed optimism in the crypto market. After hitting an intra-day high of $67,953, BTC is positioned to achieve the highest daily close since July 31, challenging its previous peak of $66,450 from late September.
Crypto analysts point out that Bitcoin is approaching levels reminiscent of Q1 2024, sparking anticipation of a potential retest of the all-time high of $73,800.
Demand from Retail Investors Remains Subdued
Despite Bitcoin nearing record levels, retail demand remains surprisingly low. Crypto Rover, founder of Cryptosea, notes that Bitcoin’s rise to near-peak levels is unfolding with “retail interest close to zero.”
However, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, highlights increasing demand through the metric of apparent demand, which measures the difference between new supply (mining issuance) and changes in long-term holdings (inactive supply for over a year). This trend reflects rising interest among institutional players and signals positive market momentum.
Positive Market Signals from Coinbase and Kimchi Premiums
Bitcoin’s purchasing demand has risen by 3% over the past 10 days, according to on-chain researcher Axel Adler Jr., indicating growing interest from new investors. Additionally, the Coinbase premium—the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other exchanges—has shown an uptick. Similarly, the Kimchi premium in Korea suggests increasing buying pressure in Asian markets.
However, both the Coinbase and Kimchi premiums remain slightly negative, leading some analysts, including Hansolar, to describe this as a “disbelief rally,” where prices rise unexpectedly, offering a buying opportunity at a perceived discount.
Leverage Drives Bitcoin Rally, But Risks Persist
While spot demand has improved, the recent rally is heavily driven by the derivatives market. Bitcoin’s open interest surged by $800 million last week, contributing to price gains. However, this leverage-fueled rally carries significant risks.
Market analyst Maartunn warns that excessive leverage triggered previous corrections, suggesting the possibility of another pullback. Capriole Investments’ Bitcoin heater chart shows the market in an over-leveraged state, indicating potential volatility ahead.
Bitcoin Faces Resistance at $68,000
Bitcoin’s next challenge is to flip the $68,000 resistance into support. This level, which coincides with a descending trendline active since March 2024, is a critical hurdle for BTC’s sustained growth.
Historical patterns suggest that after each higher high (HH), Bitcoin experiences a period of correction. If BTC fails to close above $68,300 in the coming days, it may struggle to breach the $70,000 threshold this week.
Aiming for $70K and Beyond
Bitcoin’s rally toward $68,000 reflects increasing optimism, but traders are watching closely to see if the overhead resistance will hold. Should BTC successfully close above $68,300, it could pave the way for a breakout beyond $70,000 before the end of October.
However, caution remains essential as over-leveraged positions in the derivatives market could trigger volatility. As market participants weigh both opportunities and risks, Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming days will likely determine whether it can reclaim its all-time high or enter another corrective phase.
