Former United States President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris is growing, with more people betting on his election victory in decentralized prediction markets.
Trump’s odds of winning the US presidential election surpassed the bets on Harris’ victory by 13 points on Oct. 15, according to leading prediction market Polymarket.
Presidential Election Winner 2024. Source: Polymarket
The odds flipped in Trump’s favor on Oct. 4, marking a sharp reversal from September. By Oct. 12, Trump was leading by over 10 points, Cointelegraph reported.
Decentralized prediction markets could be more accurate in predicting the results of the election than traditional polling, according to billionaire Elon Musk, who recently ramped up his support for the former Republican president.
Trump is generally seen as a more innovation-friendly candidate for the crypto space, while some investors are concerned that a potential Harris presidency could stifle blockchain innovation through more restrictive regulations.
Bitcoin transcends US politics and regulations: BlackRock’s Larry Fink
Despite the crypto industry’s focus on the 2024 election, the outcome may not have a significant impact on Bitcoin (BTC), according to Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager.
This is because Bitcoin is its own asset class that could transcend global politics, Fink added.
During BlackRock’s earnings call for the third quarter of 2024, Fink said:
“I’m not sure if either President or other candidate would make a difference. I do believe the utilization of digital assets is going to become more and more of a reality worldwide.”
Transcript of Fink’s quotes on Bitcoin, BlackRock earnings call. Source: Eric Balchunas
Fink added that Bitcoin and continued crypto adoption will not be a function of regulation but of liquidity and transparency.
US elections fuel 564% rise in prediction markets during Q3
Thanks to the upcoming US elections, the betting volume on prediction markets rose over 565.4% in Q3 to reach $3.1 billion across the three largest markets.
The significant growth in prediction market volume was attributed to increasing bets as the US elections draw near, according to an Oct. 14 CoinGecko report, which stated:
“Prediction markets picked up steam in 2024 Q3, growing 565.4% due to pundits betting on the upcoming US elections.”
Top three crypto prediction markets. Source: CoinGecko
Polymarket, the most prominent decentralized platform, dominated the market with over a 99% market share as of September. Over 46% of Polymarket’s year-to-date volume was driven by the US presidential elections poll.
US Elections, Trump, and Macro: Impact on Crypto. Source: YouTube
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