Speculations around Bitcoin price action have heightened ahead of the 2024 US elections. Republican and Democratic presidential nominees are influencing market sentiment, but Bitcoin is potentially on the brink of a parabolic phase.
It raises the question of whether BTC’s historical price trajectory could overshadow the election’s effect. There are 3 reasons to believe that November will be a non-event for BTC price in 2025.
Bitcoin price rally is delayed by 20 days
BTC price has not entered the parabolic phase, according to crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital. The analyst underlines that the phase where prices tend to rise rapidly is delayed by about 20 days when compared to previous cycles.
On October 15, Bitcoin surpassed the $66K level after doing that once in September. Rekt Capital also notes that BTC is moving upward and hasn’t broken key support levels like the 50-day moving average.
Rekt Capital finds that the market accelerated before the halving of April 2024 for the first time in history, potentially impacting its current timeline.
Bitcoin price action in the last 1 year
In past cycles, the analyst underlines that Bitcoin had already entered the parabolic phase after 6 months of halving. As a general norm, the analyst reiterates that Bitcoin will break out from its re-accumulation phase about 160 days post-halving.
Considering this Bitcoin timeline is essentially different, Rekt estimates that the market could peak around September or October 2025.
Bitcoin is estimated to enter the parabolic phase after breaking its current resistance levels of around $71,000. Since the parabolic phase is an explosive phase of a steep price rise, external factors like the US elections might have little impact once BTC enters its rally.
BTC could become indifferent to the US elections
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has spoken about Bitcoin’s value proposition during his election campaign. The inclusion has made him a crypto ally. However, his Democratic counterpart, Kamala Harris has only recently attempted to appear crypto-friendly.
So far, Trump’s victory has been predicted as a bullish event for Bitcoin. However, BTC price might follow the same trajectory in 2025, despite who becomes the POTUS, due to these 3 reasons.
Firstly, Bitcoin’s parabolic phase may not pause mid-way considering crypto is being promoted as a bipartisan issue.
Secondly, BTC price reached its all-time high of $73K under the Biden-Harris administration, making it quite independent of governments. This is also in line with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s statement that BTC is an asset class in itself and POTUS will not make a difference.
Finally, broader economic performance, like inflation and monetary policy decisions overwhelm the market theme in Q4. According to a Market Watch report, BTC options market traders are not seeing much price movement around November 5.
Traders are reportedly selling both put options and call options that expire on November 8, with prices set at $60,000 and $65,000.Meanwhile, analysts have long bet on a six-figure BTC rise before the year ends. BTC reaching $100,000 could be what the community might be focused on next in 2024 and 2025.
