Quick Reading
✅ Macro market summary
Market sentiment index: 85 (previous value) → 80 (current value)
Bullish factors to consider
The options market still has high hopes for the end-of-year market
As the high leverage below is gradually cleared, the upward force of prices increases
Negative factors to consider
ETF net inflow trend failed to continue, price support weakened
Fed meeting minutes significantly cut expectations for rate cuts this year
?Market summary
The funding situation is not optimistic, and funds continue to flow out of the market
On the chip side, after a long period of washing, the chips on the chain loosen and form a triangular structure
From a technical perspective, BTC may enter an upward trend, but there is a conflict between the technical and financial aspects. Be cautious about risks while actively going long.
?Summary of popular tracks
BTC experienced a pullback, and the altcoins followed suit;
Indicators like the Copycat Index suggest we are still some way off copycat season;
The MEME craze continues on the track, and fan tokens rotate.
?Popular projects
1. Chiliz (Infrastructure, Layer 1)
Cause of heat
Joint airdrop event with Binance
Sports sector generally rose
On-chain fund changes
Recommended attention
Subsequent airdrop results
Is Chiliz continuing to build?
2. Moonwell (Mortgage Agreement)
Cause of heat
Listed on Coinbase
Launch of cbBTC service
Coinbase Resources
Recommended attention
Can cbBTC maintain its market leadership?
Token Price Performance
Key data release date
Important data released this week Source: Macromicro - @10xWolfdao
--(The following is a detailed explanation of the content of this issue)--
1. Interpretation of the macro market
1. Summary of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes
The sharp rate cut is not a sign of concern about the economy, nor is it a signal of a rapid rate cut.
The Fed's minutes said officials agreed that the larger rate cuts adopted at the meeting should not be seen as a signal of concern about the economic outlook, nor as a signal that the Fed is ready to cut rates quickly. Officials generally agreed that monetary policy remains restrictive and that policy decisions should be adjusted based on the actual evolution of the economy.
There are risks in cutting interest rates too late or too early
Some participants stressed that reducing policy restrictiveness too late or too little could risk unduly weakening economic activity and employment. However, easing policy too early or too much could reverse progress in containing inflation. In response to uncertainty about the longer-run neutral interest rate, they advocated a gradual reduction in policy restrictiveness.
Upward risks to inflation have weakened, while downside risks to employment have increased
The meeting also stressed the balance between the increased risk of a weak job market and the weakening risk of inflation. Although geopolitical factors may lead to an increase in inflation, the risk of further significant weakness in the job market has not increased.
Economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace
U.S. economic activity is still expanding at a solid pace, and consumer spending has appeared resilient, although middle- and low-income households may face pressure to slow spending in the future.
Labor market conditions ease
Although labor market conditions had eased somewhat, with job growth slowing, they remained generally solid, and participants saw no need for further cooling to help inflation return to 2 percent.
Although inflation remains elevated, its trend is consistent with a return to target levels.
Inflation, while still elevated, was trending back toward its target. Lower food and energy prices played a key role, and slower nominal wage growth was unlikely to become a source of general inflationary pressure in the near term. Overall, participants reiterated that continued efforts to return inflation to the 2 percent objective remained a priority.
2. Market data analysis
1. Capital Inflow
1.1 ETF Inflow/Outflow
Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow and outflow (USD) Source: Coinglass - @10xWolfdao
Bitcoin spot ETF trading volume Source: Coinglass - @10xWolfdao
ETFs experienced the situation that was worried about in the previous weekly report, with net inflows turning into net outflows. The decrease in inflows pushed prices downward. Although there was a reflux, there was a lack of stable inflow support. Net outflows occurred again starting on Wednesday, so prices still have not returned to previous levels.
1.2 USDC & USDT Stablecoin Circulation
On Thursday (October 10), the number of stablecoins was 154.464 billion, compared with 155.141 billion last Thursday (October 3). The number of stablecoins this week was -677 million, compared with 155.797 billion on September 29, which has decreased by 1.333 billion. In other words, the situation on the funding side is not optimistic. Since September 30, BTC ETF has had a net outflow of 246 million US dollars. Funds are a confirmation factor of the trend. In the short term, funds are flowing out of the market, and the market lacks the fundamentals for a continuous cyclical rise.
Source: Glassnode - @10xWolfdao
1.3 USDC & USDT OTC Discount and Premium
USDT & USDC OTC premium Source: OKX - @10xWolfdao
Since September 20, the two stablecoins have maintained a discount level. This can be said to be the period with the lowest premium level since our weekly observation, and it has lasted for quite a long time. I wonder how they will perform in the future as the Chinese domestic economy performs.
2. BTC market analysis
2.1 Macroscopic radiation
Source: Tradingview - compiled by @10xWolfdao
The market continued to fluctuate this week, with an expected decline, but the overall range of fluctuations gradually narrowed. It is expected that 58,000 to 59,000 will be the key support and resistance exchange position, which is expected to be the key support level of this round of downward trend and needs to be paid special attention to.
Binance BTC/USDT liquidation map Source: Coinglass - @10xWolfdao
According to the liquidation map, the current price is around 59,000, with many high-multiple long orders gathering to form a strong price attraction. After the price runs to around 59,000 and clears the high leverage, if there is no greater drop, it will continue to return to the upward trend and is expected to return to 64,000. At the same time, the biggest pain point of the option contract exercised on October 18 is also at 62,000, so the upward resistance of the price is relatively small.
Source: Coinglass - @10xWolfdao
According to the status of option exercise date, more people will put their expectations on the market after two interest rate cuts at the end of the year. According to historical data statistics, the volatility of BTC will rise sharply at the end of the year. The hedging positions are still concentrated on the contracts exercised at the end of this month, and there is no excessive expectation for the market in November.
Source: Coinglass - @10xWolfdao
The options positions still maintain a large proportion of deep out-of-the-money positions. 100,000 is still the peak of call options, and the peak of call options is around 70,000. Therefore, these two points are the psychological expectation points of bulls, and they are also the positions that bears believe need to be hedged.
2.2 BTC Contract Market Data
The funding rate of perpetual contracts has increased significantly compared to last month and is stable, which shows that there is no significant fluctuation in market sentiment at present. We mentioned before that the market rise before September 29 was largely affected by the contract market, and the sustainability would be poor. Finally, in the decline on October 1, the market unleveraged and the contract position also decreased, but there has been a trend of rising again in the past two or three days.
Source: glassnode - @10xWolfdao
2.3 BTC on-chain address data
Changes in the number of addresses with BTC holdings greater than 1000 Source: Glassnode - @10xWolfDAO
Source: Glassnode - @10xWolfDAO
From the distribution percentage data of addresses with different amounts of coins held and the address quantity data, we can see that the number of coins held by addresses with more than 1K and less than 10,000 has decreased by 0.291% in the past two weeks.
Position changes Source: Glassnode - @10xWolfDAO
From the perspective of long-term and short-term chips, the data trend of short-term chips has stopped falling, and the data trend of long-term chips has shown a stagflation situation. This is a positive situation reflected in the on-chain data.
2.4 BTC on-chain chip data
The current chip structure is undoubtedly healthier than the previous wide range chip structure (taking 9.17 as an example), and it also has the momentum to move upward or downward.
Source: Glassnode - @10xWolfDAO
Currently, the two columns 61837-62573 have 5.59% of the chips. The chips are gathered at this position. From the perspective of chips, this position will be an important price for long and short games. After several months of shocks, the proportion of chips in 63309-68462 has dropped to 11.46%.
3. Technical Analysis & Trading Ideas Review [Monthly]
The weekly line is above the 21-week moving average, and the bullish trend should be maintained. The weekly MACD is about to cross but has not yet. The daily line has two adjustments, the second one stops falling, and the right side enters an upward structure. The first target is 66,000, and then the new high of around 72,000. Let's see if it can quickly reach 66,000, and then whether 66,000 can be stabilized without destructive adjustments. The daily MACD is still in the adjustment structure.
This wave of ETH rebounded after the decline, and the second wave showed a resistance to decline. The market rebound in the past two days was within expectations. It depends on whether the rebound can continue and whether ETH can reverse the weakness and at least recover to half of the decline.
From the perspective of the external market, the micro-strategy in the U.S. stock market rose 18% this week. From the perspective of its own structure, BTC has entered a rebound structure, so from a technical point of view, we should maintain a positive long-term thinking.
3. Market Heat
1. Overview of Shanzhai
Abstract
BTC experienced a pullback, and the altcoins followed suit;
Indicators like the Copycat Index suggest we are still some way off copycat season;
The MEME craze continued on the track, and fan tokens saw a general rise.
BTC pulls back, the altcoin market follows suit, while the MEME sector is strong
This week, BTC fell below the 60,000 mark and is looking for support again on the daily chart. Altcoins fell collectively, but the MEME market is still very hot.
Crypto market performance this week Source: CryptoBubbles - @10xWolfdao
Market sentiment fell back into panic territory again
The sentiment index on Friday was 32, down 21% from last week.
This week's crypto market panic index Source: Alternative - @10xWolfdao
The Altcoin Index fell back, and BTC market share hit the resistance level in September 2020
This Friday, the Shanzhai Index fell back to 31, having peaked at 46 a few weeks ago. The Shanzhai market remains pessimistic.
On the weekly chart, BTC's market share has not shown any signs of decline in the short term. The continuous increase has touched the important resistance levels in June 2019 and September 2020. If it breaks through (officially starting the subsequent bull market), the following three key resistance levels may be at 62%, 65%, and 68%.
Source: Tradingview - @10xWolfDAO
TOTAL3 (market cap of all tokens except BTC and ETH) is currently retracing a key trendline;
Source: Tradingview - @10xWolfDAO
We still need to see if this trend line can actually form support so that a new uptrend can be established.
Source: Tradingview - @10xWolfDAO
Both funding sides are weak
This Friday, the total currency trading volume decreased by 27% compared with last week, with a net outflow of US$918 million. The trading volume of all sectors decreased to varying degrees compared with last week.
Source: Coingecko - @10xWolfdao
The net inflow was also wiped out. The sectors with smaller outflows included storage, Polkadot, and Ethereum ecology, all of which were below US$20 million. The sectors with larger outflows included Layer1, Solana, and smart contract sectors, with a net outflow of more than US$100 million.
MEME is flourishing, and fan tokens are mobilizing
MEME
Recently, Muard Mahmudov’s speech “MemeCoin Supercycle” at Token 2049 set off the market, and a series of MEME tokens increased by tens or hundreds of times.
POPCAT surpassed Brett in market value, becoming the cat MEME with the largest market value; some alternative culture MEME tokens with cult attributes have seen the most ferocious growth:
Cultsmeme Market Cap Classification - Compiled by @10xWolfdao
Combined with the track's performance throughout the year, the MEME track ranks first and has the opportunity to maintain this trend in the next bull market.
We believe that some blue-chip MEMEs with certainty, good liquidity and a certain market value are worthy of attention and layout.
Fans / Sports
This week, most of the Fan Coin targets saw a general rise. This was due to the joint airdrop event held by Chiliz and Binance, which led to the return of popularity of the entire track, so some altcoin market sectors rotated to the entire track.
Source: Coingecko - @10xWolfdao
The attention paid to Chiliz is also included in this week’s public opinion project recommendation, which will be introduced by Teacher Dong in the next section.
Overall, the heat of the altcoin market this week was basically focused on MEME. The market hype about MEME became even more fanatical, and more and more retail investors participated in it.
Since there is no large-scale hype trend for other narratives, and referring to the market from Q4 last year to Q1 this year, MEME also rose ahead of all tracks, so we speculate that the MEME craze may continue in the short term. Other tracks still need to wait for the launch of BTC in the short and medium term, as well as various major positive factors that can promote the entire track as catalysts.
2. Review of public opinion strategies and hot topics
2.1 Short-term public opinion summary (one week)
This week's public opinion focuses on the market fluctuations of projects - compiled by @10xWolfdao
3. Popular Projects
1️⃣ Chiliz (Infrastructure, Layer 1)
Cause of heat
Joint airdrop event with Binance
Sports sector generally rose
On-chain fund changes
Recommended attention
Subsequent airdrop results
Is Chiliz continuing to build?
Chiliz is a blockchain fintech provider for the sports and entertainment sectors. Chiliz has developed Socios.com, a blockchain-based fan engagement and rewards platform built on the Chiliz blockchain infrastructure and using CHZ as its exclusive platform currency. Fans can purchase and trade partner club-branded fan tokens, as well as have the ability to participate, influence and vote in club surveys and polls. Chiliz's goal is to foster a blockchain ecosystem built for sports and entertainment.
Fan token ecosystem rises across the board
The fan token ecosystem, which has been dormant for a long time, has recently seen a general rise in the market, mainly fan tokens supported by Chiliz. There are two main waves. The first wave was led by the OG e-sports team OG Fan Token on October 8, and the second wave was led by the Paris Saint-Germain team fan token PSG on October 11. The current market value of the entire ecosystem is US$292 million, a 24-hour increase of 5%. This sudden launch does not have any actual good news at the news level. It is more of a rebound after a long period of shock and washing. There is room for the overall token to rise, but it is not known how long this craze will last. It mainly depends on the reaction of market funds.
OG Fan Token weekly performance source: coinmarketcap
Generally speaking, the rise and fall of the fan token ecosystem is highly correlated with the corresponding real-life teams, teams or recent important matches. For example, the Argentine national football team, which has superstar Messi, saw its fan token ARG quickly go out of the pin market after the start of the 2022 World Cup and after winning the championship. Similarly, this year's Argentina team entered the Copa America final and ARG also doubled in price. Then, as the related popularity and discussion declined, there was a large drop in both. The overall timeliness and public opinion correlation are high.
ARG price performance in 2022 source: coinmarketcap
Web3.0 Sports Industry Leader
As the underlying structure for building the fan token economy, Chiliz has a large enough market and profit space. Among many fields, the sports industry (including e-sports) has the strongest agglomeration and a large supporter base. In particular, football, as the world's number one sport, has attracted the attention of more than 3 billion people, and its fans have also invested considerable expenditures. Chiliz has currently launched fan tokens in cooperation with world-renowned teams including Manchester City, Inter Milan, Barcelona, Juventus, Paris Saint-Germain and more than 70 other top sports teams.
Currently, Chiliz is cooperating with Binance and Bitget to launch the pepper series of airdrop activities, which will be divided into four snapshots before the end of October, attracting the attention of the market. The official on-chain funds have also been active recently, and assets are constantly transferred. In addition to facilitating airdrop distribution, it also implies that there will be a certain amount of funds entering the market for Chz. If we talk about conspiracy theories, the recent fan token pull may also be the official operation. Overall, we need to further observe the overall development of Chiliz.
2️⃣ Moonwell (mortgage agreement)
Cause of heat
Listed on Coinbase
Launch of cbBTC service
Coinbase Resources
Recommended attention
Can cbBTC maintain its market leadership?
Token Price Performance
Moonwell is an open decentralized DeFi lending protocol based on Moonbeam, Moonriver and Base.
Coinbase resources support
First of all, the core team of the Moonwell project itself is composed of former Coinbase and Google engineers, among whom co-founder Luke Youngblood was a senior staff engineer at Coinbase and chief engineer at AWS, responsible for building the Coinbase price oracle and staking reward infrastructure. Therefore, core executives including Base founding contributor Jesse and Coinbase technical director have expressed their support for the project, and Coinbase Ventures has also become an early shareholder of Youngblood.
Secondly, Coinbase's core product is its wrapped Bitcoin Coinbase Wrapped BTC (cbBTC), with a circulating supply of 5,844 as of October 11, accounting for 26.6% on the Ethereum chain and 73.4% on the Base chain. Moonwell is the first lending application on the Base chain to support cbBTC, and Coinbase will devote resources to promote cbBTC through Moonwell.
CbBTC circulation information source:Dune
At the same time, compared with Aerodrome, which is also a DeFi project on the Base chain, both are Coinbase's expectations for cbBTC DeFi summer. After Aerodrome was launched on Coinbase, its token price rose sharply, with an FDV of 1.55 billion, while the FDV of Moonwell, which was recently launched, was only 174 million. If the number of tokens is considered comprehensively, there is also a high room for growth. The follow-up focus will be on whether Moonwell can continue to maintain its leadership in the cbBTC market.
Special thanks
Written by: Sylvia / Jim / Mat / Cage / Nora / WolfDAO
Editor: Punko
Thanks to the above partners for their outstanding contributions to this weekly report. This weekly report is published by @10xWolfDAO for learning, communication, research or appreciation only. The content is original. Please indicate the source if reprinted.
