Senior Fed officials say that interest rate cuts should be slow
Fed's big boss Waller said in the early morning of October 15 that interest rate cuts should be "more cautious", which means that the future interest rate cuts will not be as large as in September. With this, everyone feels that the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November has increased a bit.
Kashkari: The path of interest rate cuts is driven by data
At the same time, Minneapolis Fed Chairman Kashkari also said that as inflation gradually approaches the 2% target, the Fed may moderately cut interest rates. But he emphasized that the specific path of interest rate cuts will depend entirely on the performance of economic data.
Waller deeply analyzes the relationship between interest rate cuts and the economy
At the Stanford University conference, Waller further elaborated on the relationship between interest rate cuts and the economy. He pointed out that interest rate cuts need to be cautious and decisions must be made based on economic data. Although the job market is currently healthy, it is expected that October may be affected by hurricanes and strikes, resulting in a loss of about 100,000 jobs. In terms of inflation, the private sector predicts that the PCE in September will rise, but Waller said that its impact on the overall economy still needs to be further observed. He also mentioned that the US economy may not slow down as expected, but is expected to achieve faster growth in the second half of 2024.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the inflation rate is close to the target
In addition, Goldman Sachs forecasted the annual rate of PCE in September, which was 2.04%, while the Cleveland Fed forecast was 2.06%. Both figures are close to the Fed's inflation target, further showing the market's optimism about the Fed's interest rate cut plan.
