On October 15, the price of Bitcoin successfully broke through $66,000, reaching a new high since August. Data showed that Bitcoin rose 7.2% from a low of $62,172 on October 14 to a high of $66,680. As of press time, BTC was trading at $65,705.
Bitcoin’s strong breakthrough this time is not only a strong response to market sentiment, but also a positive indication of future trends.
In fact, historical data shows that Bitcoin tends to outperform in October, and the narrative known as "Uptober" has once again been validated. According to Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, despite mixed performance in the first two weeks of the month, seasonal trends still point to strong performance in the fourth quarter.
Independent cryptocurrency analyst Bullish Traders also made an in-depth analysis of the market trend. He pointed out in an October 14th X post: "Today BTC broke through the $63,500 trend and support area." This breakthrough is seen as the end of the uptrend. Since the departure from the historical high in March, Bitcoin has fallen below the 200-day moving average many times. He believes that the price will eventually touch and break the downtrend and rise to $71,165 as the next short-term target.
The robustness of the market is reflected not only in technical analysis, but also through large capital flows. Data shows that digital asset investment products received $407 million in inflows last week, with Bitcoin's inflows totaling $419 million, making it the main beneficiary of recent political changes. Meanwhile, blockchain stock ETFs saw one of the largest weekly inflows this year, totaling $34 million, which may be a response to the rise in Bitcoin prices. FalconX's David Lawnant believes that ETF liquidity may become a more important driver of price action again.
When it comes to factors that influence market movements, China's latest fiscal policy announcement is a variable that cannot be ignored. Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fangan said the government plans to stimulate economic activity by significantly increasing debt issuance. Although the specific size has not been disclosed, the commitment has already boosted local stock markets and may have a positive impact on risk assets such as Bitcoin. Wintermute OTC trader Jake Ostrovskis pointed out in an email that stimulus measures are generally beneficial to risky assets, but it is still necessary to keep a close eye on this dynamic.
Meanwhile, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, said on Friday that the use of digital assets will increasingly become a global reality. BlackRock, one of the world's largest asset management companies, believes in cryptocurrencies because it launched Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs this year. Fink believes that these assets will be more widely used and expanded if more acceptability, transparency and analytical capabilities can be created. Fink also pointed out the issue of how the United States can digitize the dollar, and emphasized that blockchain technology combined with artificial intelligence and better data analysis will bring market applicability and expansion.
In the United States, the US election is approaching, and James Butterfield, head of research at CoinShares, pointed out that investors' decisions are likely to be influenced by the upcoming US election rather than the outlook for monetary policy. At the same time, economic data provides further insight into market conditions. The US retail sales report will be released this week, and retail sales are expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month in September. This increase will be a positive sign that economic growth has not stagnated.
On the other hand, the expected market selling pressure was eased as the deadline for Mt. Gox to payout was extended to October 31, 2025. This delay eliminated some of the negative impact in the short term, giving the market a breather.
In general, Bitcoin's market performance this fall not only reflects the complexity and diversity of the market, but also demonstrates the intertwined influence of external economic, policy and technological forces. Against the backdrop of increasing global economic instability, the future of Bitcoin and other crypto assets is still full of challenges and opportunities.
