Bitcoin broke through $66,000 yesterday, close to its historical peak of $73,000.

Tom Lee, one of Wall Street's biggest bulls and former chief equity strategist at JPMorgan Chase, said he believes the price of Bitcoin will soon reach the long-term trend line of $73,000, and the current bull market is about to begin, with the price expected to reach $100,000 by the end of 2024.

This round of rising market is mainly driven by the following aspects

1. Now is the most tense moment in geopolitics!

NATO, North Korea, South Korea, the Middle East and the Taiwan Strait! None of these four regions are peaceful! The continuously escalating situation in Asia, whether it is the fierce friction between North Korea and South Korea, or the strong military exercises of the mainland against Taiwan, has provided the possibility for a more intense confrontation or even war between China and the United States.

Once the conflict between China and the United States intensifies, it will be detrimental to both the US dollar and the RMB, because neither of these two giants can completely conquer the other, and confrontation will only cause the US dollar and the RMB to be hit simultaneously.

These reasons provide sufficient upward momentum for BTC, a safe-haven fund with transnational characteristics.

2. US ETF investors rush to buy

According to data, the 12 Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States currently hold 924,768 BTC, accounting for 4.68% of the total circulation (19.76 million BTC), which is worth more than US$60 billion at the current price.

Among them, BlackRock IBIT currently holds 365,310 BTC, accounting for 39.5% of the total ETF holdings. This means that IBIT alone accounts for 1.85% of the current circulating BTC.

Grayscale GBTC ranks second, holding 220,820 BTC, accounting for 23.88% of the total ETF holdings, about 1.12% of the current circulating BTC. Fidelity FBTC follows closely, holding 178,334 BTC, accounting for 19.28% of the total ETF holdings, about 0.90% of the current circulating BTC.

The latest Bitcoin spot ETF dynamics are that on October 14, the US Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 3,892 BTC and the Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of 660 ETH.

Last week, there was a net inflow of $308 million. The figure below shows that except for Grayscale, which had outflows due to high fees, the other nine ETFs all had net inflows.

3. The USDT balance on exchanges increased by 146%, reaching a record high

According to TechFlow, on October 12, OnchainHO research director Leon Waidmann published an article on the X platform. Data showed that the USDT balance of major cryptocurrency exchanges increased by 146% to US$22.7 billion, a record high.

Waidmann pointed out that based on historical data, this usually indicates that Bitcoin and the entire crypto market are about to usher in strong buying power.

In my article on October 4th (This May Be Your Last Chance to Get on Board Bitcoin), I mentioned that there won’t be much time left for Bitcoin to trade below 60,000. You must believe that breaking the previous high of 73,000 is certain, it is only a matter of time. Prices below 69,000 are from the previous round, and only prices above 69,000 belong to this round.

Bitcoin below 73,000 will be the best range for institutions, retail investors, and all people in the cryptocurrency circle to grab shares before this round of bull market begins. The main force will try its best to wash the price below 73,000, back and forth, and wash out all those who are doing swing trading, contracts, and those with weak will. Only in this way will it be possible to collect the maximum amount of cheap chips.

Once it breaks through the previous high of 73,000, it will quickly break through 80,000, 90,000 to 100,000 in a relatively short period of time. Retail investors will surely rush in to buy the stock at above 100,000.

Because 100,000 or more reaches the short-term emotional threshold, the media will start to rush in frantically, and the news that Bitcoin has skyrocketed to 100,000 US dollars will be sent to everyone's mobile phone. Eventually, it will go viral and be reported extensively by new media and traditional media, and new people outside the market will begin to pour in.

So, again, we must always look towards the end, towards 200,000 US dollars or 300,000 US dollars, and just let the process take its course. Ups and downs are normal, and don't get off the bus until you reach the end.

Investing is a long road. If you stick to the right path, the world will never let down those who work hard and are wise.