Bitcoin (BTC) is targeting a major resistance rematch this week as BTC price gains flip October green again.
Last week’s sub-$60,000 dip looks increasingly like a deviation as traders eye the prize $65,000 resistance flip.
Slowly but surely, Bitcoin is progressing within its lengthy consolidation period, and analysis is confident of increasing buyer strength.
Earnings season kicks off this week as markets dial down bets over interest rate cuts and the Presidential Election looms.
Retail interest is still barely perceptible in this cycle, setting it apart from historical trends.
ETF investors are also cautious, with mixed flows last week pointing to broader market indecision.
BTC price sets the stage for a $65K showdown
Bitcoin came roaring back into the Oct. 14 Asia trading session, tagging $64,800 to hit new October highs.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows BTC price performance sparking 2.8% daily gains, with BTC/USD now up 1.2% month-to-date.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
While still a far cry from the traditional rate of gains in October, Bitcoin gave market participants cause for optimism.
“Regardless where we go from here, i see new highs in this year or Q1 next year,” popular trader Crypto Tony told followers on X.
BTC/USD 3-day chart. Source: Crypto Tony/X
Various voices called for a retest of $65,000 resistance on lower timeframes, this functioning as the key battleground within Bitcoin’s ongoing consolidation zone.
Employing Elliott Wave theory, fellow trader Crypto Ed, creator of trading platform CryptoTA, suggested that last week’s dip below $59,000 was now written off.
“This most recent push higher (slightly above B) invalidates last weeks scenario for a move to $57k,” he explained.
“It came close but that move in C truncated and is completed. Expecting a retest of $65k soon.”
BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: Crypto Ed/X
As Cointelegraph reported, the move that followed the weekly close liquidated around $100 million of cross-crypto short positions.
The latest data from monitoring resource CoinGlass put the total liquidation tally at above $180 million at the time of writing.
BTC/USD liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Slowly but surely, Bitcoin resistance weakening
Amid a consolidation phase now lasting nearly eight months, Bitcoin rebounding to test all-time highs is firmly a question of “one step at a time.”
Examining the longer-term situation, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital emphasized the highest daily close price reached in August, around $64,300, as the next key hurdle for bulls to clear.
That level, he noted, has been weakening as resistance ever since.
“In the past, the August highs prompted a -18% retrace,” he wrote in a dedicated X post on Oct. 14.
“Whereas two weeks ago, they prompted only an -8.5% pullback.”
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
Rekt Capital added that there was now a “good chance” that price action would dispense with August resistance once and for all and continue toward the next zone of interest at $66,000.
This currently marks the top end of a downward-sloping channel in place since March.
“Bitcoin is now challenging the August highs again and there’s a good chance they'll break. A break beyond the August highs would enable a move to the top of the Downtrend Channel (red box),” he commented alongside an illustrative chart.
Another post highlighted the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) continuing to function as support for a second week.
Furthering talk of bears ending up on the back foot, Ki Young Ju, CEO of onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, saw the potential for buyers to win control of the market and push through resistance.
“Bitcoin buy walls on all exchanges are now strong enough to neutralize sell walls,” he announced.
BTC buy/sell volume chart. Source: Ki Young Ju/X
Fed rate cut bets cool into earnings season
After last week’s slew of US macro data prints, jobless claims and earnings season now form the focus as election week draws nearer.
Jobs data has helped create a particularly troubling situation for the Federal Reserve, which is now dealing with both rising unemployment and rising inflation gauges.
“We now have the Fed, election, geopolitical tensions, and earnings in the spotlight,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in part of its recent X analysis.
Around 10% of S&P 500 firms are due to report earnings this week.
The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool underscore shifting market expectations for how the Fed will handle the upcoming review of interest rates on Nov. 7.
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
Coming just days after the US Presidential Election, the event has transformed from one due to deliver another bumper 0.5% rate cut to potentially not reducing them at all.
“We are beginning to see some signs of inflation reaccelerating again,” Kobeissi continued.
“Last week, Core CPI inflation jumped for the first time since March 2023. The Fed is playing a dangerous game with 50 bps rate cuts.”
Despite this, US equities moved higher last week, with both the S&P and Dow Jones hitting new all-time highs and gold trading within 1% of its own record peak.
Bitcoin in turn rallied into the first Asia trading session after initially flagging, having dipped to $58,860 — its lowest levels since mid-September.
Bitcoin retail interest “more uneven” this cycle
Amid a tangible absence of retail participation since Bitcoin’s all-time highs in March, new data suggests a “nuanced” comeback.
In one of its latest Quicktake blog posts on Oct. 14, CryptoQuant focused on one BTC investor cohort in particular: the plankton.
“Since BTC began surging in early 2024, much debate has arisen about whether retail investors and newcomers have re-entered the market. The answer, however, is nuanced. By analyzing specific data, we can gain a clearer picture,” contributor Binh Dang summarized.
Analyzing changes in wallet numbers on a rolling one-year basis, Binh showed a sharp contrast to previous bull markets. Before the March high, plankton were buying in the small increments of up to 0.1 BTC which characterize them.
Thereafter, however, selling took over, and the trend remains in place despite Bitcoin coming increasingly close to its previous levels.
“The rise in these group addresses in the current cycle suggests that retail participation is indeed present,” the post commented.
“However, the growth is weaker and more uneven than in previous cycles, especially during market rallies. This is understandable, given that global monetary flows have generally declined over the past three years. So, the data suggests that future FOMO waves are still possible in this cycle.”
Bitcoin “plankton” addresses 1-year change (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
Binh nonetheless concluded that a “final wave” of interest should occur during the current BTC price cycle.
Last week, Cointelegraph reported on mixed signals being given by Bitcoin whales, with the largest class accumulating while others joined retail in reducing BTC exposure.
ETF flows underscore market nerves
A similar story presents itself when observing flows into and out of the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
As Cointelegraph reported, the past week saw net outflows characterize three out of five trading days for the US products.
The largest of these was just over $80 million on Oct. 10 before the following day turned the tables with net inflows of more than $250 million, data from sources including UK-based investment firm Farside Investors confirms.
US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors
The mixed results correspond to the equally uncertain trading landscape coming as a result of the US macro data dilemma.
As noted by Bitcoindata21, meanwhile, retail participation here likewise remains distinctly lacking.
“Retail flows into U.S Bitcoin ETFs still very low,” it told X followers on Oct. 13.
“Do they return at 74k or higher, is yet to be seen.”
Retail Bitcoin ETF flows. Source: Bitcoindata21/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
