Recently, Grayscale announced that it will add 35 new holdings, namely AERO, AKT, APT, AR, ARB, ATOM, CELO, CORE, DOGE, ENA, FET, HNT, ICP, IMX, INJ, JUP, KAS, MNT, METIS, NEON, OM, ONDO, OP, PENDLE, POL, PYTH, RUNE, SEI, STRK, TIA, TON, TRX, UMA, VET, and WLD.

You should know that Grayscale is a veteran investment institution in the crypto circle. Although the launch of ETF this year has had a certain impact on its business, the current management scale of Grayscale Fund is still as high as 23 billion US dollars, and its peak fund management scale is as high as 40 billion. Currently, Grayscale holds only 15 currencies, of which 98% of the funds are concentrated in BTC and ETH. The proportion of small currencies is actually very low, about 2%.

However, we need to analyze these newly added small currencies, because although the holdings of small currencies account for a very low proportion, they are all holdings of tens of millions to 100 million US dollars, so it is also relatively objective for these small projects. A single order of tens of millions of US dollars may also be a huge pull, and when Grayscale has listed these projects, other ETFs may also be listed on these projects. Therefore, we need to review these projects and ambush them in advance to reap rewards.

At present, I have sorted out these projects by category (the classification of many projects outside is currently inaccurate):

1. Layer 1 track (12 currencies): Aptos (APT), Celestia (TIA), Core (CORE), Cosmos (ATOM), Toncoin (TON), TRON (TRX), Internet Computer (ICP), Kaspa (KAS), VeChain (VET), Mantra (OM), Celo (CELO), Sei (SEI).

2. Layer 2 track (7 currencies): Optimism (OP), Arbitrum (ARB), Starknet (STRK), Polygon (POL, formerly MATIC), Mantle (MNT), Immutable (IMX), and Metis (METIS).

3. The DeFi track includes 7 currencies: Jupiter (JUP), Ondo Finance (ONDO), Ethena (ENA), Aerodrome (AERO), Pendle (PENDLE), UMA Project (UMA), and Injective Protocol (INJ).

4. Cross-chain & EVM includes 2 currencies, THORChain (RUNE) and Neon (NEON).

5. There are 3 currencies in the DePIN track: Arweave (AR), Helium (HNT), and Akash (AKT).

6. The AI+ track includes two currencies: Fetch.ai (FET) and Worldcoin (WLD).

7. There is 1 currency in the Meme track: Dogecoin (DOGE).

Next, I will use several episodes to focus on analyzing the fundamentals of these projects. Why do you need to understand the projects? Because if you don’t know what something is, what it does, what track it is on, and how much potential it has, then you will have no confidence when buying something. Would you dare to buy it?

So to understand something, for example, if you buy a car, you must know the parameters of the car, what is the brand, how big is the displacement, how safe it is, if it is an electric car, how long is the battery life, how fast is the charging, what are the maintenance rules, you may need to understand, otherwise, will you blindly buy a car? Definitely not. So when you have a thorough understanding of the fundamentals of the project, you can hold on to it, and you will not be thrown off the car because of some short-term fluctuations.

When we analyzed these projects last year, we actually got some good results, such as Ondo, which increased by 6 times, Pendle, which increased by more than 10 times, UMA, which increased by 5 times, and AKT, which increased by more than 10 times. So we are currently sorting and organizing.

Let’s look at the Layer 1 project first:

1. Aptos (Analysis of the new high-speed public chain Aptos)

Introduction

Facebook's blockchain was originally called Lirba. Zuckerberg brought in many people and institutions to work on it, but the project was aborted and was shut down by the SEC. Libra was then renamed Diem, and most of the Aptos team members came from the Diem team (most of the team members of SUI, another of the MOVE duo, also came from this team).

Its biggest contribution to the industry is the Move language, which is a smart contract created by Facebook. Its programming language is different from all the languages ​​currently on the market.

Advantages of Move prediction:

- Security

The core design goal of Move is resource security. It ensures the non-replicability and security of assets through the type system. In smart contracts, assets cannot be copied or destroyed at will, just like objects in the physical world. This mechanism helps to improve the reliability of the data provided by the oracle and prevent the data from being maliciously tampered with.

-Flexible modular design

The Move language uses a modular design, allowing developers to create reusable contract modules. For oracles, this means that developers can build flexible and modular oracle components that are easy to maintain and upgrade, and improve the transparency of data transmission and verification processes.

-Efficient concurrent execution

Move supports efficient concurrent execution. By processing multiple transactions in parallel, it enables oracles to process large numbers of data requests from different data sources more quickly, thereby improving the throughput and responsiveness of the system. This is especially important for oracles that require high-frequency data updates.

- Resource Management

Move manages resources very strictly to avoid resource abuse and misallocation. Oracles often involve interaction with external data sources, so good resource management can ensure that the system does not have memory leaks or performance bottlenecks when processing external inputs.

-Code transparency and verifiability

The Move language has a clear structure and the code is easy to audit, which helps to improve the transparency of smart contract code, makes the oracle's operating logic more verifiable, and enhances trust between data providers and consumers.

-Improved state management   

Move allows for more fine-grained state management, ensuring that the oracle's behavior in different states can be clearly constrained and managed, reducing the possibility of errors. It can also effectively avoid inconsistent states when the oracle updates data, improving data accuracy.

- Developer friendly

Move's concise syntax and rich development tools (such as debuggers and testing frameworks) make it relatively easy to develop Move-based oracles, reducing the developer's learning curve. A strong development ecosystem also facilitates faster deployment and iteration.

- Cross-chain compatibility

Move has potential in cross-chain compatibility. Oracles can use Move to write cross-chain smart contracts, thereby providing trusted data sources for different chains and enhancing data interoperability in the multi-chain ecosystem.

Consensus Mechanism

Its consensus uses a consensus mechanism that combines BFT and POS. Aptos claims that its network processing speed exceeds 150,000 tps. This is because Aptos uses a parallel execution engine (Block-STM), which is a consensus mechanism based on the Byzantine Fault Tolerance (BFT) PoS algorithm. Unlike most blockchains that execute transactions sequentially, Aptos can process and verify all transactions at the same time. If a single transaction fails or the network is overloaded, Aptos will automatically detect and re-execute or abort, because the blockchain's software transaction memory program will automatically find and handle conflicts.

Coin Price Analysis

The current price of the currency is 10 US dollars. The highest point in March 2024 was 18, which has exceeded the highest point in 2021. The bottom in 2023 was 5 US dollars, which means that the highest increase in this wave is about 3.5 times. The bottom in 2024 was also about 5 US dollars, and it has doubled at present.

Currently, 50% of the tokens have not been unlocked. The unlocking schedule is as follows: 50 million will be unlocked by the end of 25 years. According to the current valuation of about 500 million US dollars, it will mainly be given to investors, core contributors, foundations and communities. About 10% will be unlocked, and the unlocking pressure is still ok.

Another important data is TVL. The current TVL is 700 million US dollars, and it is growing. When I talked about it before, the price of the currency was also 10 US dollars, but the TVL was only a pitiful 50 million US dollars. However, after more than a year, the current TVL has actually risen, so there is still room for expectation. At present, it should not be a problem for this bull market to break the previous high of 20 US dollars, so a 2-fold space should be visible.

In addition, the current on-chain ecology is also on the rise. Currently, the TVL of the top lending and staking sectors has exceeded 200 million US dollars, and these top DeFi projects have also increased within a month.

OK, we will continue the analysis tomorrow! #Aptos