The summary is as follows:

I. Current situation

1. The cryptocurrency market peaked in early March 2024, and entered a partial bear market after completing the second peak in early June, which has lasted for 4 months. The market lacks innovation, narrative, and liquidity, and the on-site stock is cut, and there is no hot spot to attract off-site leeks. In the bear market, there are more declines than increases, the rebound is not sustainable, and the operation is difficult.

2. Most retail investors are locked in at high positions, and more than 90% of retail investors have zero profits or even debts in the volatile downward market. Most of the active market participants are "leek elites", and those who make money and protect their principal each account for 5%.

3. The main funds in the cryptocurrency circle used to make profits by collecting retail chips, but now, except for Bitcoin, most currencies no longer have the concept of collecting chips, because issuing coins is easier than listing stocks, and the main players are more inclined to open new markets. At the same time, Bitcoin is gradually separated from other parts of the cryptocurrency circle, and the composition of traders is different.

II. Future analysis

1. In the long run, the global financial environment will turn into a loose cycle, and risky assets are expected to improve. However, there is currently a lack of driving force for a direct bull market. The past two waves of the market were driven by the Fed's suspension of interest rate hikes and expectations of interest rate cuts, and the Bitcoin ETF. The current positive impact of events such as the US election on the cryptocurrency market has become smaller, and quantitative easing still needs time.

2. From the perspective of technical analysis, with the beginning of June as the starting point for the adjustment to the bear market, the current Bitcoin market is in a volatile range, and both bullish and bearish traders need to formulate reverse trading plans. The popular cottages in the circle can be used as a reference indicator for the market. At present, it is necessary to observe whether the objective status quo supports adjustment or explosive pull. Bitcoin may be a pre-takeoff position at this position, but it may also be a bull market trap and wave B, and then wave C will be completed. The real bulls should be bears at this time, and a sharp drop in the market may make the market better in the future.

In summary, the current trend of the cryptocurrency market is unclear, it is in a bear market state and the future direction is uncertain, so it is necessary to formulate a trading plan with caution.