Article Details:
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently experiencing a period of indecision, trapped within a tight consolidation range defined by the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. This ongoing consolidation, which has persisted since March 2024 between the $55K and $71K price range, indicates a balance between buying and selling pressure.
Technical Analysis:
Daily Chart:
Bitcoin's price action has recently shown bearish signals after breaking below the 200-day moving average at $63.4K. The price found support at the 100-day moving average around $61K, where it has entered a low-volatility consolidation phase. The upcoming breakout from this range is crucial, as it will likely set the direction for the short-term trend.
4-Hour Chart:
On the 4-hour chart, an ascending wedge pattern has formed, typically indicating a continuation of the initial bearish trend if broken downwards. The price has reacted to selling pressure near the 0.786 Fibonacci OTE level, causing a significant rejection and a cascade towards the wedgeâs lower boundary. A breakdown below this level, which aligns with the $60K support region, could target the next critical support at $58K.
On-chain Analysis:
Key metrics such as realized price UTXO age bands provide insight into Bitcoin's market behavior. The realized price for short-term holders (3-6 months) is at $64K, while long-term holders (6-12 months) see their realized price at $55K. Bitcoinâs current price hovering between these two levels is critical. A successful breakout above $64K could signal bullish momentum, while failure to breach this level may renew selling pressure, leading to a possible retracement towards $55K.
