Macroeconomic observation next week: Fed rate cut expectations rise, market awaits key economic data
After the release of CPI data this week, the market has maintained a high level of attention to the Fed's rate cut trend. Although there is a view that the data may overshadow the rate cut basis point in November after its release, the US PPI data for September released on Friday showed that inflation has cooled down and remained flat month-on-month, which provides support for the Fed to cut interest rates next month.
At the beginning of next week, there will be no important economic data released in the United States, and the market will focus on the US September retail sales data next Thursday. Therefore, it is believed that the market's reaction may be very direct, because if the data is unexpectedly higher than expected, it may support the strength of the US dollar; otherwise, it may put pressure on the US dollar.
Next week's macro market dynamics worth paying attention to:
- On Monday evening, the US New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations for September were released.
- In the early hours of Tuesday, Fed Governor Waller spoke on the economic outlook.
- On Tuesday evening, Daly, a 2024 FOMC voting member and president of the San Francisco Fed, spoke at an event at the New York University Stern School of Business and participated in a dialogue.
- On Wednesday, the monthly rate of the US import price index in September was released.
- In the early hours of Wednesday, Kugler, a voting member of the FOMC in 2025 and a member of the Federal Reserve Board, delivered a speech.
- On Thursday evening, Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Fed, delivered a welcome speech at the annual meeting. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending October 12, the monthly rate of retail sales in September in the United States, and the October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in the United States;
- On Friday, the annual rate of core CPI in Japan in September was released, as well as the annual rate of GDP in the third quarter of China, the year-on-year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in September in China, and the year-on-year growth of industrial added value above designated size in September in China.
- On Friday evening, Kashkari, a voting member of the FOMC in 2026 and President of the Minneapolis Fed, delivered a speech.
These events will provide the market with further economic indicators and policy trends, and investors need to pay close attention to make corresponding investment decisions.
