The bull market is nearing its second birthday. Here’s why it will likely continue.
Most bull markets since the end of World War II that have lasted at least two years have continued through year three
The bull market in U.S. stocks is about to turn two years old, the latest milestone for a rally that has surpassed the expectations of all but the most bullish investors on Wall Street.
The S&P 500 SPX has climbed more than 60% since Oct. 12, 2022, when the index hit its bear-market closing low of 3,577.03, according to FactSet data. These gains have unfolded much faster than many financial professionals had anticipated, pushing Wall Street firms to repeatedly raise their year-end targets to keep up.
The data paint a picture of a bull market showing few signs of slowing down, even if the path higher has gotten a bit more bumpy over the past three months. The Cboe Volatility Index VIX, known as the VIX or as Wall Street’s ”fear gauge,” touched its highest level intraday since March 2020 during a global market meltdown on Aug. 5, according to FactSet data. But the jump in the fear gauge quickly receded as stocks bounced back. A similar slump followed during the first week of September, but that dip also attracted more demand from investors looking to pick up stocks at a discount.
Since then, the S&P 500 has capped off its best performance during the first three quarters of the year since the late 1990s. And if it can hold on to its gains until the end of December, it would mark the second straight year in which the S&P 500 has risen by 20% or more — the first time it will have achieved such a feat since 1998, Dow Jones Market Data show.
