1. General overview of the market and current situation:
- Current Fear and Greed Index: The average value of the index at the time of analysis is 49 (neutral market sentiment). Yesterday the index was lower - 32 (fear), which could indicate local oversold conditions, but now the situation has stabilized. This is a neutral signal that the market is not yet prone to strong jumps.
- General trend on the 1W (weekly) timeframe: - Increased volatility has been observed in the last few months (July to October), with large up and down moves. In August, the price dropped to $54,869, then rebounded strongly to $64,220 (August 19).
- In September, after rising to $65,602, there was a sharp pullback to $59,828 and a final correction to $62,819, indicating the current price consolidation.
2. Technical analysis (1W and 4H):
Analysis by timeframe 1W:
- Candlestick patterns:
- There is a candle formation with a long lower shadow for the week from September 30 to October 7, which may indicate upward pressure. This is a signal for possible growth in the coming weeks. - Indicators:
- RSI on the weekly chart is in the neutral zone (45-55), which indicates the absence of a clear trend. - MACD is showing a bearish phase, but with the potential for a reversal if the oscillators begin to narrow.
- Trading volumes have been declining in recent weeks, confirming the current consolidation. - Support and resistance levels:
- Current support is $59,828 (the level of the last major decline in September).
- Resistance - $65,602 (September maximum), then $68,000.
- Trend Lines: The long-term uptrend remains despite the current consolidation.
- Fibonacci: The Fibonacci grid can be stretched from $54,869 to $65,602, where the nearest correction levels are 61.8% ($59,500) and 50% ($60,300).
Analysis by 4H timeframe:
- Candlestick patterns:
- The last 4-hour candles indicate a moderate increase. There are reversal patterns "Hammer" and "Engulfing" on October 11, which signals a possible short-term increase.
- Indicator:
- RSI: The value is around 45, which indicates a neutral zone. However, growth is possible in the near future if the price starts to break through the resistance.
- MACD: The fast line is starting to cross the slow line from top to bottom, indicating a short-term bearish move. But on the weekly chart, the situation is more stable. - Support and resistance:
- The nearest support is at $60,000 (October minimum). - Resistance is $64,478 (local maximum of October 7).
- Liquidity Levels: - High trading volume is in the $61,500-$63,000 range, indicating potential for a significant move outside of this range.
- Trading from imbalance: There is an imbalance in the range of $61,000–$62,000, which can be quickly eliminated in case of a short-term upward movement.
3. Recommendations based on strategy:
- Fibonacci and correction levels: The 61.8% correction level of the August-September move ($59,500) can act as a strong support in case of a correction. If the price holds this level, a rebound to $65,000 is possible. - Support and resistance levels: The current support at $60,000 is important. If the price breaks this level, the next level will be $59,500. A break of the resistance at $64,000 will open the way to $65,600.
- Volume Trading Strategy: Volumes are declining, which may indicate consolidation ahead of a potential strong move. - News Correlation and Fear/Greed Index: An increase in the Fear/Greed Index (recovery from 32 to 49) may indicate a possible buying recovery if the news background is favorable.
4. Conclusions and forecast:
High volatility is expected for the coming week (October 13-20, 2024) with potential movement in the range of $60,000-$65,000. A breakout of $64,000 could lead to growth to $65,600 and higher if the news background is favorable. Strong support is $60,000, if it is broken, the price may test $59,500. #btc #BTC☀ #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #analitics #BTCLONG
