Is it the start of a bull market or a shock distribution? A review of the cryptocurrency market

Sorting out the current situation:

Tone objective trend facts: The entire cryptocurrency market peaked in early March 2024 and reached its second peak in early June. Then the market came out of the local bear market, and it has been 4 months so far.

This is what everyone often talks about. Except for the price of Bitcoin (and Ethereum before, but not now), everything else looks like a bear market: no innovation, no narrative, lack of liquidity, PVP stocks are cut by each other, and there is no hot spot in the circle to attract outsiders to interact and take over.

In a bear market, there are more declines than increases. The market is generally downward, and although the price of the currency has rebounded, it is always lower than the previous one. Most people lose money, the rebound is not sustainable, and the operation is extremely difficult.

Current situation of market participants (retail investors): Most people are stuck at high positions. More than 90% of retail investors will lose all the money they earned from the trend from October 2023 to March 2024 in the bear market of the past six months, or even go into debt. Currently, the active investors in the market are basically a group of "leek elites", 5% of them make money, and 5% of them protect their capital.

The main funds in the cryptocurrency circle also played this way at the beginning, collecting retail chips through various means, and making profits by accumulating and distributing them. Some old currencies, such as XRP and LTC, can be seen in the shadow of this operation.

But in the current cryptocurrency world, except for BTC, I think the concept of collecting chips no longer exists in most other currencies. If this plate is broken, just change it. Because the difficulty of issuing coins is much lower than the difficulty of listing stocks, the difficulty of concentrating on playing a plate to collect chips is much greater than the difficulty of starting a new plate again. This is the current situation in the cryptocurrency world.

Pie and the cryptocurrency world: At present, the biggest difference between Pie and the cryptocurrency world is that the composition of the traders is different. The counterparty of the native cryptocurrency world is: institutions vs. retail investors vs. retail investors; while the counterparty of Pie is: retail investors vs. institutions vs. institutions. Pie and the cryptocurrency world have long been separated and will gradually drift apart.

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Analyzing the future:

From a long-term perspective, as the global financial environment gradually shifts to an easing cycle, the performance of risk assets will be positive in the long run. So let's analyze where our upward driving force lies if we go bullish directly.

Since the end of 2022, the market has bottomed out and has actually gone through two upward trends.

The first wave is from the end of 2022 to the middle of 2023. The main driving force is that the Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates. Along with the main driving force, the narrative in the circle follows, including L2 narrative, halving narrative, L1 public chain narrative, etc. Most currencies have completed oversold rebounds, and a small number of currencies have performed well.

The second wave is from October 2023 to March 2024. The main driving forces are the Fed’s interest rate cut expectations and the Bitcoin ETF (I think the halving narrative is secondary). The narratives in the circle at that time included BRC20, L1 public chain, L2, modularization, etc.

What about now? On a micro level, the trend after this halving is more leisurely. If the market does not start in another two weeks, it will set a record for the longest consolidation in BTC history after halving.

BTC has been in the 60-70k range for much longer than the 50-60k range, and this is after many terrifying selling pressures and negative tests. This shows the solid fundamentals of BTC at this stage and lays a solid foundation for the next stage of upward breakthrough. Once the market breaks through $80,000, the probability of seeing $60,000 again may be very small.

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From the chip distribution chart, for example, the support of $64,000 to $69,000 that we often talk about is still very strong, and the new and old support of $63,000 seems to be the focus of the game. The consensus of $60,000 is very strong.

In addition, the US producer price index (PPI) data for September was released last night, with the annual growth rate falling to 1.8%. Although it is still higher than the expected 1.6%, the downward trend has led the market to expect that the consumer price index (CPI) will continue to fall, thus increasing bets on the Fed to continue to cut interest rates.

When the Fed is irreversibly on the path of rate cuts, the blood-sucking market of A-shares has come to an end temporarily, and the time for BTC to launch a crypto bull market is getting closer and closer. In addition, Dragon 2 $ETH and Dragon 3 $SOL have also appeared in the Morning Star pattern.

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A large number of altcoins also showed the Morning Star pattern, including but not limited to $AVAX $SEI $OP $FET $ORDI $DYM, etc. This means that the overall market rise is coming, and now may be the last chance to get on board.

Finally, let’s talk about three altcoins that can be used for long-term investment.

(1) Dog head: Neiro

The most eye-catching meme on the exchange. Trading method: step-by-step rise, each time it breaks the previous high and then pulls back and then rushes up, with heat, sufficient liquidity, high volatility, and each time it fluctuates sideways for a period of time and then continues to rise.

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（2）banana

One of the projects that can really generate revenue in the cryptocurrency circle. The official announcement of the reward is that it is purchased from the secondary market and belongs to the TON ecosystem. After the arrest of the founder of TG, there was a series of negative reactions, but there was no obvious decline in the market. The form broke through the consolidation range of several months.

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（3）Big time

The leader of the blockchain game sector, the daily bottom is raised, the market value is low, and the technical form breaks through the bottom shock range. Every time it takes the lead in leading the game sector to strengthen

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NEIRO vs. Neiro: Market manipulation and Binance’s listing controversy

However, while capitalized NEIRO was thriving in the market, lowercase Neiro (NEIROCTO) was mired in public opinion. On October 9, kiththeking published a long article on Twitter, pointing the finger at the "conspiracy operation" of the lowercase Neiro team. He revealed that the "CTO" behind lowercase Neiro was actually a cover. They secretly controlled more than 80% of the token supply when the token price was low, and then used airdrops to attract various KOLs and market makers, gradually shipping at high prices, thereby earning a lot of profits. kiththeking even described this as a "blood-sucking attack" aimed at draining the funds of retail investors in the market.

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This revelation quickly caused an uproar in the crypto community, and Gotbit, the market maker behind lowercase Neiro, was pushed to the forefront of public opinion. Gotbit has long been known for market manipulation. Crypto detective ZachXBT revealed Gotbit's various methods of pushing up token prices through fake trading volumes more than a year ago, and repeatedly reminded users to be careful of projects that have partnerships with Gotbit. Sure enough, in early October, Gotbit's CEO Aleksei Andriunin was arrested in Portugal, and several other employees also faced legal action.

What made the market even more excited was further revelations. As the market maker of lowercase Neiro, Gotbit helped lowercase Neiro play a "decentralized" role in the market by controlling internal wallets and creating false transactions. However, in reality, the supply of lowercase Neiro tokens is seriously concentrated in a few wallets. This behavior not only makes the promise of "decentralization" seem hypocritical, but also directly erodes the market's trust. This is completely incompatible with Binance's so-called listing standards - relatively low market value and scattered coin holding addresses. After knowing the manipulation of lowercase Neiro, Binance still chose to list it online.

This made Binance's coin listing policy a target of public criticism. He Yi, the person in charge of coin listing at Binance, was criticized by many in the crypto community for choosing to list lowercase Neiro at a market value of 10 million when the uppercase NEIRO had a higher market value and a larger trading volume. This made many people wonder whether Binance was supporting projects that were manipulative and ignoring the doubts in the market. Many KOLs even publicly questioned whether Binance had some kind of internal exchange of interests, allowing such "opaque" projects to be listed and traded on mainstream exchanges.


This week, "Sui" remains popular and ranks second.


The "Meme" super cycle narrative is becoming popular. As the L1 public chain that has been at the forefront of the storm recently, Sui has also produced many golden dogs - the OG Meme Pug FUD, which has risen 5 times from the bottom, the Sui Chain Hippo Hippo, whose market value once exceeded Ethereum moodeng, the emerging dirty fish Blub, the cat-themed Meme Roaring Little Black Cat AAA on Sui...

How to view the current meme coin market: short-term speculation or long-term value?

Regarding the turmoil in the meme coin market, the surge in uppercase NEIRO and the turmoil in lowercase Neiro are, on the surface, a short-term dramatic change in the market conditions, but on a deeper level they reveal the two-sided nature of the meme coin market - in this highly speculative market, short-term wealth effects are often accompanied by huge risks.

Judging from the case of NEIRO, the coordination of institutional strategies and community operations has indeed led to a short-term price surge, but whether there is actual value support behind this price is still a question mark. High returns brought by high leverage often also mean high risks. Once market sentiment changes or supervision is strengthened, the price of NEIRO may experience a sharp correction at any time. In this case, the most likely to be "harvested" are often those retail investors who take over at high prices.

The controversy over lowercase Neiro reveals the dark side of the meme coin market. Market makers such as Gotbit manipulate the market and create fake trading volumes to help projects gain "false prosperity" in a short period of time, but once the project gains a foothold in the market, the traders will sell at high prices, leaving investors with losses. This method of play may work well in a bull market, but in the face of an increasingly stringent regulatory environment, it may become increasingly difficult to sustain in the future.

At present, the US SEC and FBI's prosecution of Gotbit clearly means that regulators have realized the seriousness of these problems. In the future, as the regulation of the crypto market becomes stricter, meme coin projects that rely on market manipulation will face greater challenges. At the same time, this also provides development opportunities for projects that truly have innovative value and are willing to embrace transparency and compliance. We should remain cautious in such market changes and not be easily confused by short-term market enthusiasm.

What coins can I buy to make money now? Talk about my current holdings.

First of all, People is really strong, reaching the previous high of 0.08 this month. And I think it will remain strong before the election. We have been preparing for the election since 0.05 last month. I will hold the spot at least until the end of the month.

As for the contract, since it is close to the previous high of 0.081, I can go halfway for safety and see if there is any pullback, but I will still hold the spot.

Then AVAX finally started to gain momentum, leading the market by 10% today. The reason for the rise was the AVAX annual summit on the 16th, and the AVAX 9000 update, also on the 16th.

We also started preparing for this coin a month in advance, and it is now close to the previous high of 30 this month. So just like People, low-multiple or spot contracts can continue to be held until the 16th event and then all positions can be cleared, and high-multiple contracts can be taken near the resistance of 30, after all, our coin has risen by more than 40%.

Neiro, which was highlighted on Wednesday, also rebounded from 0.0019 to above 0.0015, and today it broke through the previous high and reached 0.00218, which is really amazing. Congratulations to those who received it.

Compared with Bitcoin, which moves at will, I think it is easier to make money with small coins that have all kinds of favorable news in advance.