Trump's victory in the election is in sight. Can the cryptocurrency market usher in the "Trump effect"?
In the US presidential election to be held on November 5, 2024, data on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket shows that more than 56% of bettors believe that Donald Trump will defeat Kamala Harris and win this political contest. As this political trend emerges, people can't help but wonder how Trump's victory will shape the future of the cryptocurrency market?
With the withdrawal of former President Joe Biden, Kamala Harris officially announced her candidacy on July 21, 2024, injecting new vitality into the Democratic Party. Faced with Trump's growing popularity, the Democratic Party urgently needs a strong candidate to boost morale. In the early stages of the campaign, Trump once led with a support rate of more than 60% with a strong support base. However, Harris briefly surpassed Trump in mid-August and won 54% support on August 16. But the good times didn't last long. Trump soon regained the lead and expanded his lead to 13% on October 7.
Trump's change in attitude towards cryptocurrencies: a key factor in the market's bullishness?
Trump's change in his stance on cryptocurrencies may be a key factor influencing market trends. He was once critical of the cryptocurrency sector, but now actively promotes a crypto-friendly government environment aimed at cutting unnecessary regulations. If Trump wins, the market may usher in a wave of bullishness, especially considering that the fourth quarter has always been the "golden period" for Bitcoin. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Bitcoin's return rate was as high as 56.6%, and since 2011, Bitcoin has achieved positive growth in the fourth quarter eight times, with November repeatedly bringing rich returns.
The potential impact of Harris's victory on the cryptocurrency market
However, if Harris eventually wins, the situation may be different. Her victory may mean that the current government's regulatory policies will continue, and many practitioners in the cryptocurrency industry believe that this regulatory approach is too harsh.
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