Date: 12-10-2024
Technical analysis:
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The SUI/USDT pair is experiencing significant volatility, as indicated by various technical indicators such as Volume, Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), and Taker Buy/Sell Volume. Let's look at technical analysis for short-term and long-term traders, as well as key support and resistance levels, and bullish and bearish targets.
🔍 1. Price overview: key observations
Current price: $2.0144
Daily Range: $1.79–$2.0876
7-Day Gain: +13.55%
30 day gain: +116.48%
This sharp increase over the last 30 days points to an ongoing bullish trend, but let's dive into the technicals to assess the sustainability of this rally.
🚀 2. Technical Indicators Breakdown
A. Volume Analysis 📈
Volume (SMA 9) is 36.829m, which suggests a steady increase in trading activity in recent periods.
Taker Buy/Sell Value: 18.57M (Buy) vs. 18.258M (Sell), showing a slightly bullish bias as buy-side interest marginally outweighs sell-side.
B. Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) 🔄
CVS (candlesticks): A positive cumulative volume delta means buying pressure is dominant despite some recent hesitation.
CVD Aggregate Futures: -1.524b, suggesting that selling pressure is starting to settle in the futures markets, which could indicate a bearish divergence in the near future if this continues.
C. Taker buy/sell volume 🛠️
Taker purchase volume: 9.054 million.
Taker Sales Volume: 8.914 million
The volume of buyers is slightly higher, but not significantly.
D. Spot Bid and Ask Delta 🟢🔴
Demand Delta: -46,718K, which means that sell (ask) orders are outnumbering buy (bid) orders, which is a sign that we may see resistance forming soon.
🔮 3. Short-term and long-term price targets
Short-term support and resistance levels 🏗️
Immediate Support: $1.79 – This level is critical as it marks the lower end of the daily range and must hold for the short-term bullish momentum to continue.
Immediate Resistance: $2.0876 is the top of today's range and will be the first major resistance for the price to move higher.
If the price can break above $2.09, we could see a short-term rally to $2.30. However, if it breaks below $1.79, the next major support will be around $1.50, which could potentially cause a pullback.
Long-term resistance levels 📈
Main Resistance (Long Term): $2.50 is a key psychological level where many long term holders may try to lock in profits.
Bearish Target: If the price fails to maintain the uptrend and drops below $1.79, the bearish target could be as low as $1.20.
Bullish potential 🚀
Bullish Target: If the price breaks above $2.50, the next major target could be $3.00, a level not seen in the last market cycle.
📊 4. Analysis of specific indicators
A. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 📐
RSI is likely hovering around 70 given the sharp recent run.
RSI Forecast: Expect price to potentially correct to support $1.79 before bouncing back.
B. Moving Averages (MA 9 and MA 50) 📏
SMA 9: Price is well above the 9-period SMA, signaling strong upside momentum.
50-Day Moving Average: The 50-day MA is much lower than the current price, suggesting that long-term holders are still in profit.
C. ADX (Average Directional Index) 🔺
ADX Forecast: Given the strength of the trend, the ADX is likely above 25, signaling that the uptrend is strong.
🔎 5. Accumulation/Distribution and Market Sentiment
The accumulation/distribution indicator suggests that smart money has been accumulating over the past few months, fueling a strong uptrend. However, aggregate futures data shows short positions increasing, meaning we may see a correction before the uptrend continues.
🌐 6. Macroeconomic factors: how recent events affect SUI
A. Raising interest rates 💹
As central banks around the world tighten their monetary policies, capital has shifted towards less risky assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, altcoins like SUI have been undervalued, leading to accumulation ahead of the next big move.
B. Inflation 📈
As inflation remains high, investors are looking to hedge in cryptocurrency, with lower-priced assets like SUI benefiting from this macroeconomic factor.
C. Regulatory News 📰
Recent crypto news has been less aggressive, allowing more speculative investments to enter assets like SUI.
🛠 7. Final Forecasts: What's Next for SUI?
Brief: Expect the price to repeat $1.79 before attempting another move.
Long term: If the bullish trend continues, breaks above $2.50 could lead to a strong rally towards $3.00.
Tip for professionals:
Watch for bearish divergences in the RSI or MACD in combination with the Bollinger Band Squeeze. These often signal potential market reversals or breakouts.
Conclusion: Caution during the period of SUI growth 🧭
SUI has shown great potential in recent weeks, but volatility remains high. With the current market sentiment favouring risk assets, this could continue. However, smart traders will be watching key support and resistance levels, using a combination of RSI, volume analysis and macro factors to assess the next big move.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrency is highly volatile and may result in substantial financial losses. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of the publisher or its affiliates. Investing in cryptocurrency involves inherent risks, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Please exercise caution.
