Date: 12-10-2024

Technical Analysis:

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Since the Bitcoin halving occurred in April 2024, this analysis will focus on how the market is reacting post-halving and what indicators suggest in the short to long term. We’ll explore support/resistance levels, key technical indicators, and potential bullish/bearish targets for Bitcoin in this new post-halving cycle.

📊 Key Indicators Breakdown: Post-Halving Market Reactions

1. Spot Price and Recent Movements:

  • BTC Price: Currently trading at $62,171.61, reflecting a 0.9% decline in the last 24 hours.

  • Post-Halving Surge: Typically, after a halving, Bitcoin enters an accumulation phase, with price consolidations before any potential explosive moves.

2. Volume (SMA 9):

  • Volume SMA: At 134.106M, indicating that trading activity is relatively stable post-halving, but a volume breakout could signal a trend shift.

  • Analysis: A volume breakout is a critical signal of strength or weakness. Increasing volume paired with rising prices often precedes a bullish run.

3. Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD):

  • Current CVD: -66.068K, suggesting that selling pressure is still dominant.

  • Analysis: This shows a period of consolidation where sellers dominate, and there could be a potential drop to lower support zones if buying volume doesn’t increase soon. However, sharp buying pressure reversals post-halving have been common historically.

4. Aggregated Futures CVD:

  • Futures Market Insight: With -906.422K in futures CVD, there's a clear indication of sell-side dominance in the futures markets.

  • Bearish Sign: This metric hints at potential downward price movement, especially if futures traders remain bearish. Historically, futures-driven sell-offs can trigger a short squeeze rally if spot buyers step in strongly.

5. Taker Buy/Sell Volume:

  • Buy Volume: 65.115M, Sell Volume: 68.99M.

  • Bearish Short-Term: More sellers than buyers in the spot market indicate bearish pressure, but this could be part of a consolidation phase before a major price movement.

🔮 BTC Price Predictions: Post-Halving Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

Post-Halving Market Trends:

Historically, Bitcoin halvings lead to supply shocks, as the block rewards get halved. This creates a supply squeeze and typically, prices surge within 6-18 months after the halving event.

Bullish Scenario:

  • Short-Term Resistance:

    • $63,200: If BTC breaks this level, it could signal the start of a post-halving rally. A breakout could push BTC toward the next significant resistance at $65,000.

    • $65,000 - $70,000 Zone: Breaking this region post-halving could trigger a bull market where FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) drives prices higher.

  • Mid-Term Target:

    • Historically, Bitcoin sees parabolic gains within 6-12 months after halving events. If BTC sustains momentum and breaks above $70,000, the next major target is $80,000 and possibly towards $100,000 by late 2024 or early 2025.

Bearish Scenario:

  • Short-Term Support:

    • $61,000: This is a crucial support level. Breaking below this could lead to a drop to $58,000. If it fails, BTC could retest the $55,000 zone.

    • $52,000: If macroeconomic conditions turn bearish, and BTC fails to hold $58,000, a deeper correction towards $50,000 - $52,000 is possible, which has historically been a strong accumulation zone.

  • Mid-Term Bearish Target:

    • A failure to hold above $55,000 could lead to a longer consolidation phase post-halving, with BTC ranging between $50,000 - $55,000 throughout 2024. This would mirror the 2018 bear market where BTC consolidated post-halving before a major rally.

📌 Key Technical Indicators Post-Halving:

1. RSI (Relative Strength Index):

  • Current RSI: Neutral at 50-55. This is neither overbought nor oversold territory.

  • Analysis: RSI above 70 signals an overbought market, so a push towards this level could indicate that BTC may soon correct after a rally. Conversely, RSI dropping to 30 or below may signal a buying opportunity.

2. ADX (Average Directional Index):

  • ADX Value: Currently weak. However, an increase in ADX above 25 signals a strong trend developing.

  • Prediction: As ADX rises, it often indicates that the trend (either up or down) is gaining strength. Watch closely for a rising ADX post-halving to confirm the start of a new bullish trend.

3. Moving Averages:

  • 200-Day SMA: BTC is still trading above the 200-day SMA, indicating a long-term bullish trend.

  • 9-Day Volume SMA: Low volume around this price could signify consolidation, but a breakout above $63,200 with rising volume could signal a major bullish move.

4. Accumulation/Distribution:

  • This indicator helps identify whether investors are accumulating BTC or distributing their holdings.

  • Analysis: Post-halving, whales and long-term holders tend to accumulate, causing a gradual rise in price. If accumulation continues, it may signal the beginning of a bull market.

🔥 Expert Insights: Will Bitcoin Follow the Halving Rally?

Post-Halving Accumulation Phase:

Historically, after each Bitcoin halving, the price enters an accumulation phase, where whales and long-term holders start accumulating BTC at lower levels. This typically happens before the next bull run, which begins 6-12 months after the halving.

  • Bear Trap Warning: Many traders may sell during the consolidation phase, mistaking it for a market peak, but the supply shock created by the halving tends to eventually push prices higher.

📈 Price Levels to Watch: Short-Term and Long-Term 📉

Key Resistance Levels:

  • $63,200: Short-term resistance.

  • $65,000 - $70,000: Mid-term resistance and breakout zone post-halving.

Key Support Levels:

  • $61,000: Immediate support. Breaking this could signal a bearish move to $58,000.

  • $55,000 - $52,000: Critical support zone for bulls. If BTC tests these levels, it’s an accumulation zone.

🎯 Long-Term Bullish Case:

  • Based on historical patterns, Bitcoin tends to rise 10-20x after halving events. If the pattern repeats, BTC could reach $100,000 or higher by late 2024 or early 2025.

🧠 Final Thoughts: Post-Halving Strategy 🧠

For short-term traders, it’s important to watch the $63,200 resistance closely. A breakout with volume could lead to a surge toward $65,000 and beyond.

For long-term investors, accumulating BTC during dips to $58,000 - $55,000 will likely pay off as supply shock post-halving tends to lead to new all-time highs within a year.



Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and may lead to substantial financial loss. Always perform your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of the publisher or its affiliates. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves inherent risks, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Please exercise caution.