With the U.S. presidential election nearing, prediction platform Polymarket is showing President Joe Biden significantly trailing Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris by a wide margin. These data show that Trump’s odds of winning the election have skyrocketed to 55.8%, while Harris’ chances have fallen to 43.8%, which are completely different compared with two months earlier. She has surged after President Joe Biden stepped aside and let her carry the Democratic ticket going forward.

Trump Capitalizes on Swing States

Indeed, Trump’s increases in Polymarket predictions are mostly derived based on his numbers in those key swing states. The decentralized platform gives Trump the edge over Harris in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada, where he is granted varying chances from 52% to 60%, respectively. Florida and Ohio are must-win states for anyone seeking the White House, and Trump’s increasing lead signals potential strength in battleground territory that has switched parties twice before. Specifically in Arizona, Trump has expanded his margin there from 55% to 60% over two weeks.

Polymarket prediction markets function by acting as a site for traders to place bets on political outcomes, and the surge of Trump-centric bets likely means that this is one area where the market firmly believes that he has a stronghold in his quest for victory. Nevertheless, the election is one of the most betted-upon political events in recent history, with more than $1.6 billion having been wagered overall. The sheer volume in these markets suggests a large interest among crypto traders and political enthusiasts alike, who consider the prediction markets to be more accurate than traditional polls.

Harris Faces Declining Odds

Kamala Harris, who was the favourite when Biden dropped out, has consistently trended down. She had a brief nine-point lead over Trump in August, which some analysts suggested represented key demographic changes that would benefit her. However, as Trump pulled ahead, particularly in the swing states, Harris’ odds dropped over time. Her strongest showing to date is in Wisconsin and Michigan, where she is still ahead by 56% each. Still, quickly diminishing odds in other crucial categories suggest she has a difficult path to find.

Prediction markets, such as Kalshi and PredictIt, echo Polymarket’s sentiment, with Trump holding leads of 52% to 48% and 53% to 52% on these platforms, respectively. Harris’ team will likely need to shift focus and rally support in battleground states if she hopes to regain momentum as election day approaches.

Crypto Traders Flock to Trump’s Promises

Trump’s stance on cryptocurrencies is also something that has contributed to his good numbers in prediction markets. Trump made several comments during his campaign about supporting the U.S. in becoming a “crypto capital” by establishing suitable regulations for the industry to develop. Many crypto traders have placed wagers on a possible return to the office, impressed by his use of Bitcoin at campaign events and his vocal promotion of blockchain technologies. This has only intensified the betting bonanza for Trump within the crypto community, who find his policies helpful to them.

Harris, meanwhile, has made some more positive comments on crypto, but perhaps not to the same level that digital asset investors have lapped it up. While crypto regulation is not specifically what Warren has been advocating for in her campaign, as she tends to focus more on general financial policies, that may help explain why this projected share is lower than Trump’s.

Conclusion: A Tight Race Ahead

Trump is now leading on numerous prediction platforms and in multiple swing states, so his odds of winning the 2024 presidential election have never been better. To the relief of Harris and her supporters, however, she still has a lead in several Democratic strongholds — support Ivey underlined as his show’s panellists rushed to explain what they saw as a historic defeat for Harris. With the scheduling of the election approaching, prediction markets will automatically swing back and forth based on what is increasingly looking like a two-person race. While it is unclear which way the tug of war will go from here, Trump seems to have prevailed so far in this high-stakes showdown.

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