Trump’s winning percentage in Polymarket hit a high in more than two months, at one point leading rival Harris Harris by 13%. On Thursday, when he attended an event, he seized the opportunity to focus on September's CPI inflation data, which was higher than market expectations. He criticized the Fed for cutting interest rates too quickly and too much, which was completely a political operation. (Preliminary summary: Musk: If Trump loses to Harris, I will probably go to jail and X (Twitter) will go bankrupt immediately) (Background supplement: Musk supports Trump! The Polymarket prediction market shows that Trump is ahead) 2024 United States The presidential election is less than a month away. Republican presidential candidate Trump's winning rate on the well-known decentralized prediction market Polymarket soared to 55.8% earlier, leading Harris by 13%, reaching a high in more than two months. At the time of writing, it was now 55.4%, and the gap with Democratic opponent Harris Harris (44%) narrowed slightly to 11.4%. Another prediction market, Kalshi, also showed Trump leading Harris by 3 points: 52% to 48%. But Trump only leads his opponent by 1% on PredictIt: 53% to 52%. At present, the total amount of bets on Polymarket's US election has exceeded 1.6 billion US dollars; however, this is only an online prediction after all, and the gap between the two sides usually narrows again near the election day. Whether the results can be accurately predicted remains to be seen. Source: Excerpted from Polymarket Why did Trump’s winning rate soar in Polymarket? It is worth noting that Trump’s sudden increase in winning rate is likely to be driven by Musk’s tweet. Musk posted on his X account with 200 million followers on the 7th, saying, “Trump leads the gaming market with a 3% winning rate. Harris, this is more accurate than the polls because the real money is on the line.” The next day, Trump’s win rate surged significantly on Polymarket. In addition to the Musk effect, it may also be related to a mysterious trader. According to Benzinga, Fredi9999 is a mysterious Polymarket user who has become the largest holder of shares related to Trump’s victory, triggering community concerns about his identity. and speculation about motives. Polymarket mystery trader related to Musk? Data shows that Fredi9999 holds more than 14 million shares of stocks supporting Trump in the bet on "whether Trump will win the 2024 presidential election," which is higher than more than 7 million shares earlier this week. His total holdings are now worth more than $10 million. This giant whale's sudden increase in bets attracted the attention of political bettor Domer. He pointed out in a tweet on the 8th that there are two possibilities for this user: one is that this account is funded by a group of people for betting, and the other is that it is a worthless person. A whale worth over US$100 million, some users even speculated that the account might be related to Musk. He also said that the account’s sudden increase in funding coincided with Musk’s recent appearance at Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania and his retweet about Polymarket. Therefore, he speculated: “If it wasn’t Musk, then Definitely someone very similar to Musk, someone very similar to Musk who is probably a fan of Musk (thus explaining the timing of the bet above) The user is a passionate and wealthy supporter who is well versed in cryptocurrencies and technology. , he spent a lot of money to support his belief that Trump will win." Trump blasted the Fed's interest rate cut as too much and a "political manipulation." As Trump continues to expand his lead in Polymarket betting, several latest reports have emerged. Traditional polls show that Harris is slightly ahead of Trump, but the gap is narrowing. In recent days, Trump has seized the opportunity to attack the economic weakness and inflation caused by the Democratic Party. (Yahoo Finance) reported that when Trump spoke at the Economic Club of Detroit on Thursday afternoon, he quickly seized on the CPI (Consumer Price Index) report that September inflation exceeded market expectations. He wildly criticized the Biden-Harris administration and the federal government. There will definitely be an interest rate cut in September. A 2-cent rate cut is too big. The fact is, the Fed cut rates a little too fast, cut too deep, and everyone knew that was the political strategy they were trying to pull off before the election. This is entirely a political decision and inflation is already starting to rise. At the same time, he also accused high interest rates of "really killing the American dream of young people." The pro-Trump super PAC Make America Great Again weighed in on Thursday, saying Thursday's inflation data could be part of "the Fed's worst nightmare." Extended reading: U.S. CPI in September was "higher than expected" to break the stalemate in inflation! Fed official: It is not necessary to cut interest rates in November. Related reports: Standard Chartered Bank predicts: "SOL will increase 5 times" if Trump is elected. Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. Is it blatantly helping Trump buy votes?Musk: Give away a free bonus of 1,500 yuan, as long as you recommend "voters in swing states to sign" Trump and Musk join forces to build momentum! People went to the shooting scene in Pennsylvania to demand votes. How did the related meme coins perform? "Trump "leads Harris by 13%" in Polymarket, opened the Fed meeting: Cutting interest rates too fast is a political operation" This article was first published in BlockTempo (Dong District Dongzhen - the most influential blockchain news media) ).