Inflation figures have fluctuated, but the overall CPI is not bad. The key here is that the increase in the wage-related "service less energy and shelter" has returned to the red zone. This corresponds to the previously released hot ISM non-manufacturing PMI.
Nick quoted Bostic of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, saying that there is a possibility of a pause in interest rate cuts in November, which means there will be only one interest rate cut of 25bps by the end of the year, while the market currently believes that there will be two interest rate cuts of 50bps.
In fact, lowering interest rates once or twice really has little impact. The biggest problem is whether inflation has really recurred. It seems that the unemployment rate still has a direct impact on wages, and wages are directly fed back into inflation.
Therefore, an increase in the unemployment rate is good data, and a decrease is bad data.
