Ethereum (ETH) price fell below its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on Oct. 1. Since then, it has struggled to climb back above these levels, which have become resistance points.

Failure to overcome these resistance levels suggests potential hesitation among buyers to enter the market at higher prices.

Ethereum Struggles Below Resistance

Ethereum is currently trading at $2,398, slightly below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $2,462 and its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $2,483. In short, the 20-day EMA reflects the average closing price over the past 20 days.

While the 50-day SMA provides a longer-term perspective by tracking the asset's average closing price over the past 50 days.

Read more: Ethereum ETFs – Understand what they are and how they work

When an asset’s price drops below these moving averages, it typically indicates a downtrend or a loss of upward momentum. In this case, these moving averages act as resistance levels, making it challenging for Ethereum to recover unless there is a significant increase in demand.

This demand is lacking in the Ethereum market, as evidenced by its negative Chaikin Money Flow. This indicator, which measures the flow of money into and out of the coin’s market, is in a downward trend and below the zero line at -0.08.

Ethereum 20-day EMA/50-day SMA. Source: TradingView

When an asset’s CMF is negative, it indicates more selling pressure than buying pressure. Thus, it reflects bearish sentiment among traders and investors, suggesting a prolonged decline.

Ethereum Chaikin Money Flow. Source: TradingView

ETH Forecast

Ethereum’s Parabolic Stop and Reverse (SAR) indicator, measured on a one-day chart, confirms the bearish bias against the leading altcoin. Since October 1, the dots that make up this indicator have been above the Ethereum price, suggesting that the coin is in a bearish trend.

Traders often interpret this as a signal to sell or exit long positions.

Ethereum Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

If the selling pressure continues to gain momentum, Ethereum price could move further away from its 20-day EMA and 50-day SMA, reinforcing the downtrend. In this scenario, the price could drop to $2,062.

However, this bearish outlook could reverse if buying pressure increases. If this occurs, Ethereum price could break the resistance set by the 20-day EMA and the 50-day SMA, allowing it to trade at $2,836.

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