𝗨𝗦 consumer prices increased by 0.2% in September compared to August, with core inflation (excluding energy and food) rising by 0.3%, exceeding expectations by a tenth of a percentage point in both cases. According to Commerzbank analysts Dr. Christoph Balz and Bernd Weidensteiner, while this does not rule out further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in November and beyond, the significant 50-basis-point reduction seen in September is likely to remain an anomaly.

Inflation’s downward trend appears to have stalled "Stronger-than-expected labor market data for September had already diminished expectations of another large rate cut by the Fed. Now, the apparent pause in inflation's decline further strengthens this view. For two consecutive months, the core consumer price index has shown a more pronounced increase than anticipated."

"This trend is not fully mirrored in the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, due to differences in data sources and the weighting of certain prices in the PCE deflator."

"Nonetheless, the prevailing optimism about steadily easing inflationary pressure may now be tempered. This data suggests the Fed will likely proceed with caution. A substantial 50-basis-point rate cut seems increasingly unlikely, and even a 25-basis-point reduction is no longer a certainty in the eyes of market participants. However, we maintain our forecast for a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s November meeting, particularly given the continued decline in service prices, which are expected to guide the medium-term outlook."

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