Yesterday morning, China's stock market took a dramatic turn, leaving many people confused and wondering: What's going on? Wasn't it said that there would be a big bull market?

If we shift our focus away from A-shares, we might be able to see some clues. During this period, China and the United States have made a lot of big news, and the world's money bags have been shaken. In this chaos, we have to find out what the mainstream trend is.

The global capital market has been quite lively recently! The reason is that we all know that the US dollar has begun to cut interest rates, which has brought about a series of chain reactions. In order to cope with this change in the situation, the two major countries, China and the United States, have made a lot of policy adjustments.

Many of us are paying attention to A-shares, which is true, but don't forget that global capital flows are the driving force behind the stock market. Once the US dollar cuts interest rates, global capital will become active and look for investment targets everywhere. This is like a capital war, and the fun has just begun!

From October 8th to 9th, the atmosphere here was very lively, and the dynamics of the global capital market were even more intense. Let's review the major events of these two days and figure out the context of things. First, the US dollar interest rate cut suddenly appeared new situation. Entering October, the United States has released three economic data.

The first is that the number of job openings in the United States increased to 8.04 million in August, the highest level in the past three months. The ADP employment in September reached 143,000, which is a pleasant surprise, several times higher than last month and much better than expected.

What is even more gratifying is that the number of non-farm payrolls in September increased by 254,000, which is really amazing and completely exceeded everyone's expectations. In addition, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in September, which is good news, indicating that more people have found jobs.

My goodness, look at this job market, it is really surprising, it suddenly became strong. I remember that in September, the US dollar interest rate cut was so decisive, directly 50 basis points, and everyone thought it was a magic weapon to save the economy. Who knew that the reason behind it was actually that the job market was not strong enough.

Looking back now, maybe that rate cut was a misunderstanding. As for the big guys on Wall Street, they are starting to complain. For example, former Treasury Secretary Summers publicly said that the September rate cut was a big mistake! Who knows, maybe they are all right, but we ordinary people can just wait and see. The economic situation changes faster than turning the pages of a book.

Faced with the current situation, senior Fed officials have come out to speak out, expressing their support for further rate cuts. Fed Governor Kugler, New York Fed President Williams, Boston Fed President Collins, Atlanta Fed President Bostic and others all hold this view.

However, you also know that the Fed's words are sometimes confusing. They may say the opposite of what they mean, so as to avoid the market guessing their decisions in advance. Some experts pointed out that the US dollar interest rate cut may change because Chinese assets generally rise. If the interest rate continues to fall, it will be more beneficial to my country.

To prevent the appreciation of our country's assets, raising interest rates may be an option. Recently, the global capital market has been volatile and the situation is unclear. On October 8, the three major US stock indexes rose at the opening, and technology stocks were even stronger. However, European and Indian stock markets fell across the board, and international oil prices, which had soared a few days ago, also fell sharply.

The Japanese stock market has performed well in the past two days, and the Chinese stock market also rose on the 8th. But on the 9th, the Chinese stock market adjusted. This kind of volatility is mainly because global capital is now confused and a little restless.

If we want to find the pattern, it may only mean that the main force of international capital originally expected the US dollar to cut interest rates, but now there is a change. At the same time, affected by the US financial stability policy, most capital still chooses to stay in the US market. But a small part of it has begun to transfer funds to Asia, especially the Japanese stock market.

According to the latest news, the US dollar interest rate cut may change. The possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is decreasing, and it may not continue to cut interest rates. So, is it possible to raise interest rates in reverse? Some experts say that if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, China will win.

It sounds strange, but it is actually very simple, because if the Fed raises interest rates, it means that they will destroy the most important thing for the United States to establish a financial nation - credibility. The Fed's position in the United States is very important, just like the helmsman on a ship, controlling the entire direction.

The US capital operation is to pursue profit, which may seem a bit chaotic at times, but the Fed's operation must be orderly. We can compare the US financial market to a giant ship, an enormous financial aircraft carrier. It is extremely difficult for this ship to turn around.

Since September, all funds have been expecting the Fed to cut interest rates. Now you suddenly tell them to change direction. Don’t you think this is surprising? It is difficult to turn around and it is also difficult to stop. This move in the capital market has really made many people anxious.

The money withdrawn from India and invested in the Japanese stock market are now in an awkward situation. The funds are hanging there, or waiting, who knows if they will lose everything? If something goes wrong, who will bear the responsibility?

If the United States suddenly changes direction, it will be embarrassing for its allies such as Europe, Japan, and South Korea, which have always followed the pace of US policies. Just like Japan, they actively devalued to support the dollar and paid a heavy price.

If the United States makes another 180-degree turn, will Japan continue to cooperate? This is really hard to say. After all, the losses may be very serious, and may even affect the entire financial system of the United States and the West. That would be a big deal. If the interest rate hike happens suddenly, it will really be beyond everyone's expectations.

In this way, the Federal Reserve System (commonly known as the Fed) seems to have admitted that its decision to cut interest rates in September was a mistake. It is like a child realizing that the game he played before is not right and wants to correct it. However, does this behavior make people feel that the Fed's decision is just a child's game?

This is a question of the Fed's authority. People will start to wonder, if their current rate hike is a "regret" for their previous rate cut, will anyone believe them next time they say they want to adjust the interest rate?

In the final analysis, if the US dollar does suddenly raise interest rates, the biggest impact may not be on China, but on the allies of the United States and other Western countries. Let's talk about one more thing and let's take our time to think about it.

A few days ago, Jim Rogers, a Wall Street tycoon, mentioned in an interview that he had sold all other assets in the world and only kept China's A-shares. This news is actually quite obvious, and it mainly expresses two points. First, American capitalists have begun to operate according to the Fed's interest rate hike policy.

Now that the US dollar has started to cut interest rates, from a general trend point of view, everyone is not optimistic about the United States, but is more inclined to invest in China. The Federal Reserve certainly knows these two things, they see them very clearly. Therefore, by November, they have few options left. #SCR新币挖矿开始！ #6万保卫战 #特朗普当选概率上升 #CPI&PPI来袭，美国通胀升还降？ #鄂B炒家