Bitcoin went straight to liquidate long positions last night. After seeing buying funds in the market yesterday, I thought that it would at least liquidate a wave of short positions before falling further. I didn't expect the funds to flee so quickly in the evening, and I hit stop losses on several orders in one go.
The long contract users within 7 days have been almost cleared, and there are still 331 million long contract users around 59,900. BTC fell back to around 60,000 in the morning, which is exactly the support level of EMA200, and it is also the low point of the correction in the past few days. Currently, a double bottom + EMA200 support is formed. As long as 60,000 is not broken, it will continue to be bullish, oscillating between 60,000 and 65,000, and it is ready to break through the upper trend line pressure, and start a violent rise!
Waiting for CPI data
Today's CPI data, like last week's employment data, is the only breakthrough point every week. However, the CPI data is obviously not as important as the employment data. If this week's CPI data cannot help prices break through and stabilize and return to the upper track of the daily line, that is, above 63,550, bullish sentiment will inevitably continue to be frustrated. The possibility of prices continuing to fall back will be relatively high.
The trend of BTC in the past two weeks has been too weak. Without external stimulation, the market has basically fluctuated in a small range. This also shows that market traders are in a confused state at the current stage. If this state continues, the confidence of bulls will inevitably be greatly damaged. To quote many friends, it is the most frustrating stage when the price cannot rise or fall.
At present, let me see that this is the sequelae of the inadequate correction before the forced stimulus last week. In addition, BTC began to decouple from the US stock market in the first few days of this week, which made the market lose its reference "anchor" again. It is quite troublesome. There is no solution at present. Waiting is the best way. There are two opportunities. Either the technical breakthrough/breakdown today, or the CPI stimulus tonight will lead to a short-term small trend.
Future strategies
(If a decline is the premise, it will be activated)
first step:
The weekly line needs to break (break below BBI), and the daily line also needs to break (break below MA120)
Once the first step is completed, the signs of a downward trend will emerge;
Step 2:
Bottom warehouse problem:
1. If there is a slight decline, do not make a move; wait for a definite market to appear next week;
2. If a big negative line appears directly this week, I will go short and build a bottom position on the same day;
Step 3:
Adding to main positions:
This week, we will first look at the closing line. If it is a negative line, we will see whether it can continue to be negative next week. If it is a small negative line, we will add half of the short position. If it is a big negative line, we will go all in directly.
Step 4:
Regarding the issue of rolling warehouse:
If the downward trend is established, the subsequent pullback will be at most near the BBI of the weekly line, so the point of floating profit plus short is the BBI of the weekly line;
About shorting Xiancoin:
BTC is still the main currency
However, ETH has been too weak this year, so you can consider allocating 20% of your position to short.
Because ETH has formed a weekly downward trend, it has rebounded from the bottom of MA120 and is suppressed by BBI. If BIT fails, ETH will break MA120 and collapse.
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