#FED minutes released.

All officials supported lowering interest rates at the September meeting.

Some participants indicated that a 25 basis point cut at the July meeting would be reasonable.

Some participants indicated that they would prefer a 25 basis point cut at the September meeting, while a few indicated that they would support it.

A few participants added that a 25 basis point cut could signal a more predictable normalization process.

Participants generally emphasized that it is important to convey that decisions depend on the direction of the economy and the effects on the balance.

Many participants argued that it is important to convey that quantitative tightening could continue “for some time” even if interest rates are lowered.

Many participants noted that easing policy restrictions too early or too much could risk stalling or reversing progress on inflation.

Staff expectations for the September meeting were that the economy would remain “strong,” but the growth forecast for the second half of 2024 was “revised downward” to reflect softer-than-expected labor force indicators.