What can I say about the current market situation of A-share market? Major shareholders, old investors and even insiders do not believe it. There were reports today that hundreds of companies were intensively reducing their holdings, and only new investors were frantically opening accounts and waiting to be harvested. I can only sigh that the young people in China are too inexperienced. They are still bragging about the stock market after only a few days of appreciation. The market is not even worth a penny in the cryptocurrency circle. Let's calm down and return to the embrace of the big pie!
It may be that the stimulus policy of the State Council Information Office yesterday was not strong enough. The A-share market withered after reaching 3670 yesterday morning and has been falling all the way until today. It has fallen to 3258 this afternoon. I said in yesterday's article that this A-share market is completely policy-oriented. The economic fundamentals have not improved. Many friends compare this wave of market with 2007 and 2015. The high points of those years were 6124 and 5178 respectively. So they think there is still a lot of room for upward movement, at least it has broken through 5000 points, but the current national conditions are actually completely different from those times. 200 The 15 years from 2000 to 2015 were the sprint period for China to develop its economy with all its strength. At that time, all walks of life were in need of reconstruction. It was also at this time that China became the world's factory. During this period of rapid development, the amount of domestic capital issuance was beyond imagination. Therefore, during this period, not only the stock market was bullish, but also the real estate was even more bullish. Per capita income and expectations and confidence in future economic growth were also very strong. Therefore, the driving force of these two waves is not only policy-based, but also caused by domestic and foreign capital support and residents' confidence. What China is facing now is the withdrawal of foreign capital, the increase in unemployment, and the emergence of new There is a serious shortage of population growth, serious aging, and structural mismatch among young people. It is difficult for college students to find jobs, but there is a shortage of labor in the blue-collar industry. Therefore, under this economic background, it is difficult for the domestic financial market to improve quickly through policy stimulus. It is easy to draw a few big positive lines in the short term, but it is rare to see sustained strength. Today I saw a news report saying that hundreds of companies have begun to intensively reduce their holdings under this wave of market conditions. Many major shareholders and actual controllers only retain less than 10% of their stock holdings. This actually reflects that the market conditions are difficult to sustain. Of course, there are indeed queues for opening accounts at securities companies, and there are more policy expectations in the future. For example, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the 12th, and the Minister of Finance will also attend and speak. In the future, the country may continue to print money and release water, so the short-term market conditions may continue to follow the policy for several waves, but I am still not so optimistic about the A-share market in the medium and long term, unless the country completely turns around at a higher level, develops the economy wholeheartedly, continues to open its doors to attract foreign investment, and resolves international export controls, allowing China to restart the world's factory, so that the A-share market and domestic real estate can usher in a real long bull market.
Speaking of the macro economy, after the non-farm data exceeded expectations last Friday, officials from all walks of life basically changed their tune, and this week is still a period of intensive speaking. Last night, several senior officials said that interest rate cuts must rely on data, and caution is the best approach to balance various competing risks. CME also continued to lower the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in November to 13%. I said yesterday that in the current rate cut cycle, positive economic and employment data are both good news, which is why US stocks maintained an upward trend last night. Next we have to pay attention to the Federal Reserve minutes and CPI data. In addition, the market will have to face the impact of two hurricanes before the US election. These two hurricanes will be reflected in the number of initial jobless claims announced on Thursday and the October non-farm employment data announced on November 1. This needs attention. In fact, both the policies and data on the US side are very stable at present, and the impact on the market is not significant, and it is not even as good as any action in the Middle East.
Let me talk about two major events that can affect the currency market, one good and one bad. The good one is the $16 billion compensation from FTX. The compensation was previously said to be in cash, and there is no doubt that this huge amount of money will form a strong buying force. In addition, yesterday, the representative of FTX creditors also said that payment should be made in kind, which is even more beneficial. When FTX collapsed, it was these coins that caused the market to plummet. If compensation is made in kind, it means that all creditors will automatically buy coins to pull up the market, so this news is definitely good news; the other is that the US Supreme Court refused to hear the case of Silk Road's seizure of Bitcoin ownership. This was interpreted by the market as the government and the seizure of Bitcoin with complete control, which also means that the 69,370 Bitcoins can be sold freely. Although this is not all of the 200,000 Bitcoins in the hands of the US government, it also has a great impact on the market. Remember the performance of the German government and Mentougou's currency prices in the past few months? This also has a certain negative effect.
In the election, under Musk's all-in platform, Trump's chance of winning has reached 53.4%. In an interview, Musk also revealed that the reason why Microsoft and Google support Harris so much is because of the Lolita Island incident. If Trump comes to power, he is likely to announce the details, which is unacceptable to them. Musk also bluntly stated that if Trump loses, he will be finished and the X platform will go bankrupt immediately. So this time Musk is going all in. Of course, Trump does have a greater chance of winning, which is also more beneficial to the currency market.
In terms of market conditions, the market is still volatile, with no obvious rise or fall. In terms of copycat assets, except for meme, the performance of other assets is also average. In short, if you don’t play meme in the current copycat market, you really have nothing to play with. On the contrary, there are monster coins exploding every day, such as today’s nub cb coby aura lockin lsd, etc. The meme on the sui chain has also exploded for several consecutive days, and the rise of hippp pigu liq is also very good. The old meme on the Ethereum chain has also shown signs of making up for the market. Projects that broke the circle before, such as fwog Harry Potter, have also rushed up, and can double in a single day. In short, it is still the world of meme, and it will take some time before the copycat bull we are familiar with. Meme is only suitable for a few people to gamble, and the risk is extremely high. Those who are not good at meme should wait for the big market later!
