Among the 8 major black swans in the world in 2022, 1 black swan comes directly from the crypto industry, and 3 directly affect the crypto industry. Crypto is no longer a niche industry five or six years ago. It is closely related to the outside world. Behind the dense black swans is a major change that has not happened in mankind for a hundred years. The old order of mankind in the past few decades is collapsing, and the new order is being rebuilt. Everything solid is disappearing. The only thing that remains unchanged is change itself.
[Black Swan 1] The Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out, and the West launched the "toughest sanctions in history". The conflict has lasted for more than 300 days since February 24, 2022. It has caused turmoil in the global stock market, foreign exchange market, energy, food and metal futures market. Europe's "suicidal" sanctions have also plunged itself into an energy crisis and inflation crisis. The risk of economic recession has increased, and residents are deeply troubled by the serious cost of living crisis. However, the ruble has become stronger with more sanctions, and once hit a two-year high.
[Black Swan 2] Energy crisis rages in Europe, natural gas prices once skyrocketed In the "domino effect" caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Europe is facing an unprecedented energy crisis. Gazprom is accelerating its withdrawal from the European market, and natural gas prices have hit a record high. The largest pipeline for transporting natural gas from Russia to Germany, "Nord Stream 1", was shut down, and then "Nord Stream 2" exploded, causing a natural gas leak
[Black Swan 3] The Federal Reserve has set off a global interest rate hike frenzy, stirring up global financial markets. It has raised interest rates 7 times this year, with a cumulative increase of 425 basis points to 4.50%, setting the largest annual rate hike since 1980. The European Central Bank, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico and other central banks have also raised interest rates sharply for many consecutive times. The US stock market has experienced the largest retracement since 2009 and fell into a "technical bear market". Fragile emerging markets have suffered, and Bitcoin and other currencies have been affected and fallen. The energy crisis has caused soaring prices and electricity prices in Europe.
[Black Swan 4] The finale of the "demon nickel" short squeeze: Wenzhou's richest man escaped unscathed, and JPMorgan Chase lost money and left. In March, the epic short squeeze of LME nickel futures LME nickel futures prices soared by more than 250% in two days and once climbed to a record high of $101,365/ton
[Black Swan 5] Britain replaced three prime ministers within the year. Truss triggered a "tax cut panic". The Queen of England, who had reigned for 70 years, passed away. Three prime ministers were replaced within a year. Truss became the shortest-serving prime minister in British history because of his tax cut policy. In order to curb inflation, the Bank of England continued to raise interest rates, while tax cuts were contrary to the Bank of England's tightening policy. Tax cuts caused Britain to suffer a direct "stock, bond and foreign exchange" triple blow, among which the pound exchange rate plummeted to a historical low. The world's largest nickel producer Tsingshan Holdings' 150,000-ton nickel short position did not explode and survived the crisis. JPMorgan Chase's long position of US$120 million was closed at a loss.
[Black Swan 6] Musk's acquisition of Twitter caused chaos, causing Tesla to fall continuously and lose the title of the world's richest man. Musk, the "global traffic generator", bought Twitter for $44 billion. He first got rid of executives, the board of directors, and research staff, and then all employees worked overtime. Twitter was in constant turmoil, and many advertisers stopped advertising.
[Black Swan 7] Hong Kong stocks rebounded dramatically In November, Hong Kong stocks staged a magnificent rebound, from the bottom to the start of a strong upward surge Hong Kong stocks fell 53% from the 2021 high to 2022-10-31, and the adjustment period was the longest downward cycle in the past 20 years Under the epidemic prevention policy, real estate stimulus policy, supervision and policy positive signals, the Hang Seng Index rebounded as much as 35% from the bottom in October, once approaching the 20,000 point mark Interest rate hikes, the decline in new energy enthusiasm, concerns about chaos, and Musk selling stocks, Tesla's stock price fell 69%
【Black Swan 8】 FTX collapsed, and SBF became "one of the biggest financial fraudsters in history". In 2022, the "Lehman moments" in the cryptocurrency circle were staged one after another, and bank runs and panic spread. Luna jumped off a cliff and San Arrows went bankrupt. SBF misappropriated customer funds for Alameda. On the eve of FTX's bankruptcy, it only held $900 million in saleable assets and had a debt of $8.9 billion. A crazy bank run on FTX led to its rapid collapse, and SBF became "one of the biggest financial fraudsters in history".
