U.S. economic data for October were strong, and market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting on November 8 have dropped significantly.
Currently, based on 30-day federal funds futures prices, the market's expected probability of the next 25Bp interest rate cut is 81.6%, and the probability of no interest rate cut is 18.4%.
At the same time, the predicted probability of Trump being elected president has increased significantly in recent days, and the balance of the U.S. election on November 5 is tilting towards Trump.
