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今日加密市场大跌之际美联储PCE数据全线低于预期且威廉姆斯重申进一步降息基调，但BTC仍坚挺，交易员押注明年降息预期转向更保守。 灰度GBTC转型计划失败背景下，长期持有者自9月以来已抛售100万枚BTC，昨日单日抛售7万枚；同时欧盟MiCA生效前多家交易所下架USDT影响市场流动性，ETH/BTC跌至0.0339创近三年新低。 数据显示机构情绪分化，贝莱德IBIT今日盘前交易量21.6亿美元中33%为主动买单。 目前来看仍然属于有惊无险
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阶梯发挥鲍威尔的鹰派发布会，美股和加密货币都来了一把空投狂欢…..$BTC
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日央行在美股大跌后继续开始鸽派氛围，一切和8月5号有点像$BTC
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鲍威尔在回答是否被联储会拥有比特币的问题上，还是满满的不甘心….$BTC
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1. 美联储宣布降息25个基点，符合市场预期，预计明年仅有两次降息。 2. 美联储大幅上调未来政策利率目标区间中位数，同时上调明年和后年通胀预期。 3. 鲍威尔表示美国经济表现强劲，劳动力市场降温但仍稳健，通胀接近2%目标。 4. 过去三个月平均月新增非农就业17.3万个，11月失业率为4.2%，处于较低水平。 5. 美联储已将政策利率从峰值下调100基点，政策立场明显不那么紧缩。 6. 今年PCE通胀预期为2.4%，明年为2.5%，高于9月预测，之后将降至2%目标。 7. 美联储暗示将放慢或暂停降息步伐，未来政策调整将更加谨慎。 8. 联邦基金利率预期明年底为3.9%，2026年底为3.4%，高于9月预测。 9. 美联储将根据经济数据、前景变化和风险平衡来决定未来降息幅度和时机。 10. 美联储将隔夜逆回购工具利率降至目标区间下限，属技术性调整。
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