HBO will release a new documentary "Electronic Money: The Mystery of Bitcoin" later on Tuesday (October 8), and the trailer claims that the content will reveal the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the father of Bitcoin. Its producer Cullen Hoback even admitted that he had personally confronted the real person. According to data from Polymarket, a large cryptocurrency betting platform, the market currently speculates that the most likely candidate is cryptography expert Nick Szabo, which coincides with the early theory of billionaire Musk.

Hoback told CNN that he had personally confronted the person he believed to be the real Satoshi Nakamoto, which means that the person he believed to be Satoshi Nakamoto is still alive, which means that Len Sassaman, who died in 2011, and cryptographer Hal Finney, who died in 2014, are unlikely to be Satoshi Nakamoto.

In addition, Sassaman's widow Meredith Patterson said in an interview with DL News that HBO did not contact her about the documentary. As a result, Sassaman's chances have dropped to less than 10%, while Finney's chances are only 2.7%. Other candidates include imprisoned software engineer Paul Le Roux, Craig Wright and Musk, all of whom have relatively low chances.

However, the “Other/Multiple” option on the Polymarket betting platform currently has the highest probability, at 57%. Although Hoback posted on October 5 that the documentary will reveal “one” specific name, the market still seems to be betting that more than one person may be involved.

At present, the market believes that the most likely person is cryptography expert Nick Szabo.

Szabo is an American computer scientist, cryptographer, and jurist known for his research on smart contracts and digital currencies. He graduated from the University of Washington School of Computer Science and Engineering in 1989 with a bachelor's degree in computer science, and then received a bachelor's degree in law from the George Washington University Law School.

It is reported that he created the cryptocurrency project Bit Gold in 1998. The project has never been officially launched, but many people believe that it is the predecessor of Bitcoin. Szabo once explained in detail that the inspiration for proposing Bit Gold came from solving the inefficiencies he saw in the traditional financial system.

In 2014, the Center for Forensic Linguistics at Aston University in the UK compared the Bitcoin white paper written by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008 with articles written by Szabo and 10 other people who may be the creators of Bitcoin. The results showed that Szabo's work had a high degree of linguistic similarity with the Bitcoin white paper.

The research team pointed out at the time that there were incredible similarities in language between Szabo's work and the Bitcoin white paper, and other possible authors who may be Satoshi Nakamoto did not match so well.

In 2015, a report in the New York Times also pointed to Szabo as the true identity of the creator of Bitcoin. However, when he was interviewed at the time, he explicitly denied that he was Satoshi Nakamoto and denied the online claim that he was a law professor at the University of Washington.

Szabo said at the time: “Well, I said this to set the record straight, I am not Satoshi Nakamoto, and I am not a university professor. In fact, I have never been a university professor.”

But he also mentioned that Bit Gold has many similarities with Bitcoin. "There are a lot of similarities, I mean, the reason people label me Satoshi Nakamoto is because there are so many similarities between the security ownership name and Bit Gold that you can't find anywhere else."

When asked if he believed Satoshi was familiar with his work, Szabo responded at the time that he understood why there was so much speculation about him, noting that "I would say all of these similarities, they're interesting to me and they're interesting to a lot of other people."

On July 7, 2014, Szabo also denied being Satoshi Nakamoto on Twitter. He wrote: “I am not Satoshi Nakamoto, but thank you.”

During the 2021 Lex Fridman podcast, Musk said Szabo was "more responsible than anyone" for the creation of Bitcoin.

Despite some compelling evidence, the computer scientist has explicitly denied on multiple occasions that he is Satoshi Nakamoto.

Musk also admitted this fact in the above-mentioned podcast, which is why Musk said he didn’t know who Satoshi Nakamoto was.