As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, the US political and economic arena is experiencing unprecedented turmoil. Among them, the depreciation of the US dollar and the rise of Bitcoin have become topics of great concern. The United States is using Bitcoin, an emerging asset, to balance the weak dollar, and this asset may even solve many financial problems faced by the middle class. Here are four major predictions on how the 2024 US election may affect the future development of the US dollar and Bitcoin.
Policy differences between Trump and Harris
Trump and Harris have very different attitudes towards cryptocurrencies. Trump is a strong supporter of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, and he has expressed his enthusiasm for the industry on multiple occasions. Trump promised that if he is elected, he will create a presidential advisory committee on cryptocurrency and choose cryptocurrency-friendly regulators. He also declared that the United States must become a leader in this field and plans to promote Bitcoin mining and widespread acceptance of cryptocurrencies.
In contrast, Harris's stance on cryptocurrencies is more ambiguous. However, as the election approaches, the Democratic Party is also reconsidering its stance on cryptocurrencies, which may indicate that she will adopt a more friendly policy. In any case, the policy differences between the two candidates will undoubtedly have an important impact on the future of Bitcoin.
2. The depreciation of the US dollar and the safe-haven value of Bitcoin
The depreciation of the US dollar has become a reality that cannot be ignored. The Federal Reserve said that by 2024, the purchasing power of the US dollar will drop significantly, which has led many developing economies to consider trading in currencies other than the US dollar. At the same time, in order to avoid a recession, the Federal Reserve may continue to implement loose monetary policies, which may further exacerbate the depreciation of the US dollar and inflation.
Against this background, the value of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin as safe-haven assets has become increasingly prominent. Since its inception, Bitcoin has been viewed by many as an anti-inflation tool and is expected to bring economic independence. Especially as global economic uncertainty increases, Bitcoin's safe-haven properties become more significant.
3. Bitcoin’s integration into the global economic system
With the passage of the Bitcoin spot ETF, Wall Street giants have begun to hold Bitcoin on a large scale and include it as part of their asset portfolio allocation. This not only marks the deep integration of Bitcoin with the traditional financial system, but also indicates that the crypto financial system is booming.
Globally, more and more countries and regions are beginning to introduce their own cryptocurrency regulatory frameworks, such as Singapore and the European Union. This shows that regardless of the outcome of the US election, the global cryptocurrency market will continue to develop and gradually integrate into the global economic system.
4. Social influence of cryptocurrency and policy making
Cryptocurrency not only plays an important role in the economic field, but also has a wide-ranging impact on the social level. Especially in the United States, the middle class is facing difficulties such as slow income growth and increased risk of unemployment, and cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin provide them with a potential financial hedging tool.
Both Trump and Harris have noticed this and are trying to attract cryptocurrency investors and young voters by formulating relevant policies. Trump has promised to protect the interests of cryptocurrency investors and promote the development of the decentralized finance (DeFi) field; while Harris' team is also in dialogue with leaders in the cryptocurrency industry, which may herald the introduction of more friendly policies.
On October 2, according to a major report by Forbes, the two parties in the United States have reached a preliminary consensus on the strategic national reserve of Bitcoin. The existing funds of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department will be used to purchase 1 million Bitcoins. This move will consolidate the United States' position as the largest national holder of Bitcoin, giving it 5% ownership of the entire network - equivalent to the country's share of the global gold supply.
5. Breaking news in the United States: The Kuomintang and the Communist Party agree to establish a national reserve of Bitcoin
On October 2, according to a major report by Forbes, the two parties in the United States have reached a preliminary consensus on the strategic national reserve of Bitcoin. The existing funds of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department will be used to purchase 1 million Bitcoins. This move will consolidate the United States' position as the largest national holder of Bitcoin, giving it 5% ownership of the entire network - equivalent to the country's share of the global gold supply.
The following is the full article:
"This is our Louisiana Purchase moment."
Senator Cynthia Lummis announced a bill to establish a strategic reserve of Bitcoin at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference in July. Lummis' bill would use existing funds from the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department to purchase 1 million Bitcoins. The move would solidify the United States as the largest national holder of Bitcoin, giving it 5% ownership of the entire network - comparable to the country's share of the global gold supply.
Loomis’s comparison of Bitcoin to the Louisiana Purchase resonates with cryptocurrency supporters. In 1803, President Thomas Jefferson made an asymmetric bet by purchasing the Louisiana Territory, and the payoff from that bet was also asymmetric. Now in 2024, policymakers who support innovation see a similar opportunity in Bitcoin.
On the same day that Loomis unveiled details of the bill, former President Donald Trump outlined his own policy of creating a "national bitcoin reserve" and "never selling" the approximately 200,000 bitcoins currently owned by the U.S. government. Trump also compared bitcoin to "the steel industry 100 years ago" and vowed to make the United States the "crypto capital of the planet."
At the same conference, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — who has suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed President Trump — proposed an alternative strategic reserve plan to purchase 5 million bitcoins, or about 25% of the global supply. Kennedy now serves as an advisor and surrogate to Trump’s presidential campaign.
Conclusion
The 2024 US election will have a profound impact on the future of Bitcoin and the US dollar. The policy differences between Trump and Harris, the depreciation of the US dollar and the safe-haven value of Bitcoin, the integration of Bitcoin into the global economic system, and the social influence and policy making of cryptocurrencies will all become key factors in determining the future direction of Bitcoin and the US dollar.
In this political and economic storm, the rise of Bitcoin not only provides new opportunities for investors, but also provides a potential financial solution for the middle class. However, how to balance the relationship between the traditional financial system and the emerging crypto-financial system, and how to promote economic growth while protecting the interests of investors, will be challenges that the US government and the global community need to face together.
