Former US President Donald Trump has edged out Vice President Kamala Harris on the Polymarket prediction platform, raising his chances of winning to 50.8%. Elon Musk has backed Trump's advantage, saying betting is more reliable than polls. While cryptocurrency has become a major agenda item in the 2024 election, Trump has taken a clearer stance on the issue than Harris.
The probability of former US President Donald Trump winning the 2024 election has risen to 50.8% on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket. That puts Trump ahead of incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris, who has a 48.4% chance. The betting on Trump and Harris has been shifting since incumbent President Biden dropped out of the race in July. While Harris led Polymarket for much of September, the betting on Trump has increased this month.
Musk's comments on Donald Trump and Polymarket
“Trump is leading Kamala by 3% in the betting markets,” Tesla CEO Elon Musk told Polymarket on the X platform. “These are more accurate than polls because they involve real money,” he said. Polymarket’s estimate differs from the New York Times’ national polling average, which has Harris leading at 49%, while Trump remains at 47%.
Musk has made his support for Trump's 2024 campaign clear. Musk, who attended Trump's first campaign rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday, said, "The only candidate who will protect democracy in America is Donald Trump." He expressed his support for the former president. The rally was held in Butler, where Trump narrowly escaped an assassination attempt.
US Presidential Election and Cryptocurrency
Cryptocurrencies have become an important agenda item in the 2024 US presidential election. Accordingly, Trump has publicly voiced his support for cryptocurrencies, NFTs, and decentralized finance. Harris, on the other hand, has remained silent on the issue for a long time. Harris stated last month that he wants to encourage the development of cryptocurrencies.
Harris, however, creates uncertainty around crypto. Although Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said in his statement last week that “Crypto will win regardless of the election outcome,” he said Harris is not as clear-cut as Trump in this area.
The presidential election in the United States takes place on November 5, 2024.
