Why have I been paying attention to STH-RPC recently? Because I define this line as a standard line that symbolizes whether a new round of trend can be started. When the price of BTC is higher than STH-RPC (average turnover cost of short-term holders), STH-MVRV will be greater than 1, which means that short-term holders in the market have gradually achieved overall profits, which is also a prerequisite for investors' psychology and emotions to become more stable. If the overall loss is always in place, it is easy to make market sentiment sensitive and anxious, and generate more uncertainty.

(Figure 1-click to enlarge)

From the above figure, as of October 6, STH-RPC is 62,620, and the current price of#BTCis higher than STH-RPC again. This is the fourth breakthrough test initiated since BTC fell below STH-RPC on June 21.

It took 39 days from the first to the second time (July 15-August 23), 26 days from the second to the third time (August 23-September 18), and 18 days from the third to the fourth time (September 18-October 6). It can be seen that the interval time is getting shorter and shorter each time, which also makes me feel that there seems to be a kind of "restless" power accumulating.

If we must "carve a boat", then the closest case we can find is the period from August 16, 2023 to October 16, 2023. Before that, it also went through a 5-month consolidation period. After the price of#BTCfell below STH-RPC on August 16, 2023, it launched 3 breakthrough tests, and the interval time was also getting shorter and shorter each time, until the fourth successful breakthrough on October 16, it opened a trend from 28,000 to 73,000. During this period, there was also a retracement test on January 22, 2024, which established the trend.

Of course, "Kezhou" is just a reference after all, and it does not mean that it will succeed if it happens to be the "4th time" now. Maybe there will be a "5th time" and "6th time"... Just like an army, if it often conducts exercises, and the frequency is increasing, then there will always be an exercise that will become an actual combat.

#Bitwise申请XRPETF #加密市场反弹 #EIGEN、OP、ENA大额解锁 #Moonbix #非农人数大幅升温