Under high interest rates, it is unrealistic to expect a new round of Bitcoin surge just when the Fed starts to cut interest rates.
Under high interest rate environment, the Fed began to gradually cut interest rates. Although it is a normal adjustment of monetary policy, the direct impact on Bitcoin price may not be immediate. The main reasons are as follows:
1. Market expectations first: Before the Fed officially announced the interest rate cut, the market usually had fully anticipated and priced its actions. Therefore, when the interest rate cut really came, its immediate impact on the market may be weakened. Especially in the Bitcoin market, due to its high sensitivity and volatility, investors' expectation management becomes more important.
2. Macroeconomic conditions: The Fed's monetary policy adjustments are usually based on an assessment of the overall economic health. Interest rate cuts may mean that there is a risk of economic slowdown, which will affect corporate and consumer confidence, and then affect the performance of multiple fields such as the stock market and bond market. Bitcoin will not stay out of it.
3. Capital flow and risk preference: In theory, interest rate cuts are conducive to reducing borrowing costs, promoting economic growth and corporate profits, and may increase investors' risk appetite, which is beneficial to risky assets such as Bitcoin. However, this process is not immediate and linear. It takes time to ferment and is subject to the general trend of global capital flows.
4. Bitcoin's unique attributes: As a decentralized digital currency, the value of Bitcoin is not only affected by monetary policy, but also by its inherent technological innovation, community consensus, supply and demand, and other factors.
Therefore, even a shift in global monetary policy may not necessarily translate directly into a surge in Bitcoin prices.
5. Regulatory policy uncertainty: Global regulatory policy changes, especially regulatory measures for the cryptocurrency industry, will also affect Bitcoin's price trend. Policy tightening or relaxation may become an important inducement for price fluctuations in the short term.
In summary, it is unrealistic to expect it to bring about an immediate and substantial price increase.
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