With the arrival of golden autumn, the A-share market once again demonstrated its unique charm.
After the release of the non-farm data, Bitcoin rebounded quickly, bringing new hope to investors. The market in Q4 is still worth looking forward to.
The recent decline was largely influenced by war risk aversion.
Judging from the current situation, the market has basically shaken off expectations of a trading recession.
More importantly, the shift in monetary policy has shifted from monetary tightening to monetary easing, which is a clear trend. As long as there is no recession in this trend, we can at least expect a soft landing.
The shift in monetary policy will undoubtedly increase investors' risk appetite and increase their expectations for investment in risky markets.
Although sometimes we see a drop in cryptocurrencies like BTC, this does not mean a change in trend.
The decline may be due to a variety of factors, such as the flow of funds from the cryptocurrency market to the US stock market, or the departure of users due to war expectations. However, these are only short-term fluctuations and cannot change the overall positive trend. We must learn to make friends with the trend.
There are many positive factors in Q4, from the general election to the halving cycle, from defensive interest rate cuts to FASB, all of which are worth looking forward to.
The following three reasons determine the bullish trend:
1. We are in a rate cut cycle/before global quantitative easing.
2. The current cost for Bitcoin holders is high and the profit is not much.
3. The Canadian dollar is supported by governments including the United States and Japan.
After the conflict between Israel and Iran is resolved, the bitcoin price will continue to fluctuate upward.
Observe the bull-bear cycle of altcoins from the time cycle of interest rate hikes and cuts:
This round of interest rate hikes began in March 2022 (the Russia-Ukraine war started at the same time), and altcoins really began to plummet in March of that year.
The first round of general increase in this round of altcoins began in October 2023 and ended in March 2024.
The time span from March 2022 to October 2023 is 17 months. (The various local hot spots in the middle are not considered) So from the interest rate cut in September this year to December 25, there will be almost 15 months of interest rate cut cycle. The Federal Reserve can hold 11 interest rate cut meetings, each time with an average of 25 points, and the interest rate will drop from 5.5 to 2. If there are a few more 50p increases in the middle, the interest rate may be as low as 1 by the end of 25 years.
Therefore, from the perspective of the interest rate cut cycle, after the interest rate cuts and monetary easing spread to cryptocurrencies, altcoins will reach new heights by the end of 2025.
Here is a list of currencies that have shown favorable conditions recently:
1. $Peopel (RMB internationalization token)
Positive factors: As the November 8 election approaches, the market is expected to start speculating on election-related digital currencies 2-3 weeks in advance. $Peopel has attracted much attention as a potential hot spot.
When the price is below $0.058, it is a good time to buy on dips. During the election hype, it is expected to rise by more than 20%.
$AVAX
Investment strategy: When the current price is below $24, it is recommended to actively pay attention and consider entering the market. Based on the benefits brought by the summit and updates, the expected increase can reach more than 10%
$OM (Mantra DAO)
Positive factors: $OM is scheduled to launch its mainnet at the end of the month. As a leader in the field of real-world assets (RWA), the news of its launch on the mainnet will inevitably attract widespread attention from the market.
When the price is below $1.2, it is a great time to enter the market. Considering its fundamentals and market potential, the expected increase can reach more than 20%.
4. Indirect positive factors for $Fet (Filecoin): Although the direct mention is the launch of the expanded version of Wld, considering that NVIDIA will release a new generation of 50 series graphics cards at the end of the year, this will further promote the development of the AI field. As one of the leading projects in the AI field, $Fet is expected to indirectly benefit from this trend.
Given the continued warming of the AI field and the leading position of $Fet, it is recommended to pay long-term attention and make arrangements at the right time.
