๐ The Bull Market Debate: When Will It End? ๐ฅ
There are three main views circulating online regarding the current market situation:
1. Uncertainty on Whether Itโs a Bull Market
Some believe the current market isn't confirmed as a full bull market yet. These individuals argue we're only at the policy bottom, and we still need to see a market bottom before the bull market officially starts. This conservative view, represented by figures like Lin Yuan, is optimistic about sectors like consumption and the big health industry but remains cautious in labeling the market a bull run.
2. It's Definitely a Bull MarketโAnd a Crazy One!
This perspective is much more bullish, viewing the current market through a historical lens. Proponents compare it to the 519 bull market and believe it will last about half a year, like previous intense bull markets, before transitioning into a long bear market. They argue this market is even more powerful than the 2007 and 2015 bull runs, but history shows these cycles are short-lived.
3. Not a Bull MarketโJust a Rebound
Some traders see this surge as a temporary rebound, predicting a sharp drop after National Day. They highlight that economic fundamentals don't support a true bull market, and representatives like Dan Bin point to declining performances in major companies like Moutai. Dan Bin missed this rally and has shifted focus to US stocks.
My Opinion ๐ก:
1. This is a Bull Market
Thereโs no doubt in my mind that we are experiencing a true bull market.
2. Index Target: 6000 Points
Iโm setting my sights on an index reaching 6000 points.
3. A Slow Bull Market is Likely
I believe this bull run is not just a rally but a part of a wealth redistribution strategy, driven by a historical mission to benefit younger generations. This is a decisive move by the state, ensuring wealth flows to the people through mechanisms like stock repurchases and revaluations.
Moreover, our pensions are at risk of being depleted by 2030, similar to Japan, where retirement ages may be pushed to 70 years old. This bull market offers a chance to secure our financial futures, and we must actively participate.
Market Projection ๐
The index is well on its way to 4000 points and could hover between 4000-5000 before sprinting toward 6000. While many traders may start selling at 4000-4500, Iโm looking further ahead. The financial sector is leading the way, and once that momentum builds, weโll see additional opportunities in areas like semiconductors, AI, and Huawei Hongmeng.
