Regarding the current market situation, there are roughly three views on the Internet.
The first one: It is not certain that it is a bull market
Discussing the policy bottom and the market bottom, these people believe that the current one is the policy bottom, and another leg needs to appear, representing the market bottom, to confirm that the bull market has officially started. It is too early to talk about the bull market now. Currently, Lin Yuan is the representative of this view. Lin Yuan is still optimistic about consumption and the big health industry. Their views are very rational, traditional and conservative. So if you ask them when this round of bull market will end, you may not get an answer, because they are not sure it is a bull market.
The second type: It is definitely a bull market, and it is a crazy bull market
This kind of view looks at the bull market from a historical perspective. The start and intensity of this bull market far exceed those of 2007 and 2015, and only the 519 bull market can be compared. However, history also tells them that each bull market is very short, ending in half a year or more, followed by a 4-5 year bear market. So this bull market will also last about half a year, so the holding period can be kept at about half a year this time!
The third type: Not a bull market, just a rebound
After the surge, there will be a sharp drop. They believe that there will be a sharp drop after the National Day. The economic fundamentals are far from what should be expected, and the trend is downward. Moutai is not selling well, and its performance has declined by 20-30%. It does not have the fundamental basis for a bull market. Dan Bin is a representative of this view. He currently invests more in US stocks and outperformed most funds in the first half of the year, but he missed out on this round and is being criticized by investors.
Fourth: My opinion
1. This round must be a bull market.
2. I see the index is 6000 points
3. There is a high probability of a slow bull market in the future
Why?
I think this bull market is a bull market of wealth redistribution, with a historical mission, fought for by countless young people who did not get married, had no children, or consumed money, a major move by the state to benefit the people, and the best solution made by the upper class under the current economic environment. "The central bank promotes the exchange facilities of securities, funds, and insurance companies and the re-loans for stock repurchases and holdings, and guides listed companies and major shareholders to provide loans to support the repurchase and increase of listed company stocks."
Therefore, we must participate in this bull market. Our pensions will be exhausted in 2030, and we may need to earn our own pensions in this bull market. At present, Japan may delay the retirement age to 70 to cope with the shortage of pensions. They are a mirror for us. Looking in the mirror can help us find our own shortcomings and prepare in advance. I think most people do not want to work at the age of 70.
It should not be difficult for the index to reach 4000 points in its current state, and then it will fluctuate around 4000-5000 points, and then sprint to 6000 points. So I think 4000-4500 points is the selling point for most people. The selling pressure here will be very large, and there may even be a sharp drop at this position, because I have observed that most financial bloggers and economists are targeting 4000-4500, but my target is 6000.
So if the target is 4,000 points or above, brokerage firms will definitely have no selling points if the target is not reached. In the article I wrote on the evening of the 24th, the leading players had no time to wipe their tears and expressed the impact of policies on the financial industry, the reversal of difficulties, and the revaluation of valuations at the first time, and stated that there is no problem in listing brokerage firms. The market has also always confirmed the correctness of my views.
Since the main line is determined to be the financial industry, we will complete the main line first, and then consider Huawei Hongmeng, semiconductors, or AI computing power. The point of view is very clear, there will be no branches in the short term, and the utilization rate of funds must be considered in the bull market.
Why do we judge that the future will be a slow bull market? Because pension funds need money, which cannot be used in a crazy bull market. (Bold judgment, careful verification)
