We've had a hefty last weeks. After what seemed like a breakout in september, we fell down to 60,000 per BTC in the beginning of October. We've had a wonky support here, but the recovery seems to be imminent.

The yen carry trade brought BTC's price to 49,000. Threat of a global war just pushed it down to barely 60,000! It seems that there's a trend of higher lows going on the price.

This could potentially be an indicator for the upcoming bear market of projected 2026-2027. The bottom could very well be within the 50,000 and 60,000 range. Historically, bear market bottoms have occured 2 years after the halving year. In 2020's halving, the bear market bottom came in 2022 at 15,476 USDT per BTC. In 2018, the bear bottom came in at 3,156 USDT per BTC. Not even with the COVID black swan could the price drop to this point again! In fact, it reached 3,782 USDT at the lowest. It then saw an uprise to 69,000 USDT. Counting the 2018 bear market bottom, this was a 21.8x multiplier to your investment had you bought in at 3,156.

BTC bull-run multipliers have always been skewed since no analyst ever agrees what the effective bottom was. Just extrapolating the data, taking 2014 bear bottom to top in 2017 was a 60x movement. Being extremely conservative and taking just a measly 6x multiplier, 92,856 could be this cycle's top. Assuming a middle ground between 12x and 13x (12.5x) results in 193,450.

This trend of diminishing returns seems scary, but, again, since no analyst decides where the bottom is, we could just see a selection bias in the results. My personal prediction is that the cycle's top could be ranging anywhere between 100,000 and 250,000 this upcoming year, with a rally begining as early as this month of October, where 70k no longer is resistance and instead flips to support.

I'm not a big TA analyst myself. I don't like drawing lines in charts but rather feed myself of a plethora of sources to draw conclusions on inflexion points. 60,000 tested for as long as 3 days sniffed like a bottom, the same as 49,000 and 52,500. Of course we could always go lower due to any unprecedented event, but this seems unlikely now.

This particular TA caught my attention because bear market bottoms can clearly be identified as trend reversals. The said gaussian channels draws an estimate of the uptrend duration, which usually is of around 2.5 years. We're already 1.25 years into the gaussian band. (2023.5 to 2024.5 a year has passed. We're almost ending the year now). Most of the movement occurs in this last period of time remaining, that would be 1.25 years ahead. Could the cycle top be in late 2025?

Additionally, from the chart we can appreciate how previous cycle tops become support or the new bear market's bottom. Such was the case for 2017's top, which was 2024 halving's bear bottom in 2022. This begs the question, will 2028's halving cycle bear market bottom be in our current range area, or will that be 2032's halving? Only time travelers will be able to answer to us right now. I personally expect any bear bottom in 2026 to be ranging within 20,000 and 45,000. But do not be surprised if the price doesn't even break 60,000 because this has been the entry for many investors this cycle!

As a closing statement -- gold has seen a pullback in price due to global conditions such as the attacks in the middle east warring countries. The S&P 500 has remained quite strong, not even breaking it's July's high as support. Much like alt-coins, other stocks such as TESLA and NVDA have been suffering while the big players like SPY's ETF stay untouched. We are certainly heading for a rally in all markets, specially as the economic data turns out to be quite good.

Nothing said is financial advice.