Why is it that most crypto projects, which do not make any money at all, can still have market capitalizations of tens or hundreds of billions of dollars, when traditional companies of the same size are simply not worth looking at, and yet there are still people speculating on empty air?

1️⃣The chip structure is not comparable.

When the stock opens, early investors/stakeholders hold most of the chips, and there may be a small number of new chips for retail investors. It is basically a one-way sale to the market, so the buying consensus requires good fundamentals.

In contrast, Meme coins use fair launch and VC coins use community airdrops, giving up a portion of profits to the community in exchange for the power to price their own chips.

Fair launches and airdrops are not narratives, but rather a model of chip distribution.

Of course, the wealth effect brought by fairness/airdrop will eventually become a narrative.

As a loser in this market, you must take advantage of it, play more fair launches, and get more airdrops.

2️⃣ The amount of money that the main force can get out of a plate with a market value of tens of millions and a company with a market value of tens of millions is completely different.

The tradable market value and the pricing market value are different. Traditionally, with a meme of the same market value, if two main players are not restricted and they dump the market at the same time, the amount that can be cashed out is completely different. The fundamental value of the stock determines that someone will be willing to buy the company if it is oversold. Even if the business is not good, there is still asset value, and the tradable market value is larger.

Except for very good meme IPs, basically no one is willing to take over other people's plates. Eight out of ten CTOs are acting.

The high market value of cryptocurrencies, especially on-chain memes, is determined by the pricing market value controlled by a small number of AMM LPs. The truly tradable ones are actually the mainstream currencies and stablecoins in the LPs.

Hippo has now been cut in half, with a market value of $150 million, but there is only $2.6 million in the pool, which is not enough for the second person on the list to smash. The second person on the list smashed all 22 million coins, and only $1.6 million of the 3.5 million market value coins on the books could be released.

With a mere 1.6M in capital outflow, Hippo will lose 75M in book value.

Therefore, some people say that this round of zoo has created many myths of single currency 1M. In fact, after the goods were sold this time, only 4 addresses earned 1M. Of course, this is already very good.

3️⃣For the same plate with a market value of tens of millions, if 80% of the chips are concentrated in the hands of a group of dog dealers, even if all of them are smashed, the profit may not be much more than that of another plate with only 5% of the chips in the hands of a group of dog dealers.

Hippo's daily trading volume is tens of millions. If the No. 2 on the list really wants to clear out the inventory, it can sell it slowly. You can see that there have been some declines in the past few days, and there are still many people buying in.

But if the stand-alone coin of the coin issuing group has the same market value, it is meaningless to dump the market, not to mention how much profit can be made. Because before the increase in distribution, no one will take it even if it is dumped, and the LP is added by the main force themselves. So don't be prejudiced against stand-alone coins. This kind of coin often bulldozes the market. After all, pumping up the price to sell is their only way out.

4️⃣Finally, when all chips are circulated, prices will deviate from fundamentals and the impact of costs will be greater.

There are too many examples here. A typical example is ADA. After so many years, it is still the chain with the worst cost-effectiveness and poor market value and performance. Others such as ETC, LTC... These old coins have basically become pure gambling chips. Fundamental changes will only be a small episode when opening contracts to gamble on the size.

Holding cost can also be used as a trading bottom-fishing/top-selling indicator. Taking BTC as an example, the current price is 60k, but the realized market value (the average price of each BTC at the last transfer) is 30k, which can be used as a reference for the average cost of BTC.

When the market value and cost are close to or even reversed, you can buy the dip without thinking. The most recent times were in 2015, early 2019, and late 2022. On the contrary, the greater the gap, the greater the risk.