Job market grows strongly with 254,000 new jobs added

The U.S. Department of Labor released its latest non-farm payrolls report on October 4, showing that non-farm payrolls increased by 254,000 in September, far exceeding market expectations of 147,000 and marking the largest increase since March this year. Meanwhile, figures for July and August were also revised upward, from 144,000 and 159,000 respectively, for a total increase of 72,000 in the two months.

This employment growth was mainly driven by significant hiring in the leisure and medical care industries. Experts pointed out that the strong employment data reflected the steady recovery of the U.S. economy and eased market concerns about economic recession. The labor force participation rate remained at 62.7%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating stable labor supply.

Source: Investing The United States released its September non-farm employment report, with the number of people far exceeding expectations.

Unemployment rate drops to 4.1%, wage growth exceeds expectations

The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% in September, below market expectations and the previous reading of 4.2%, marking a three-month low. The strong job market also led to wage growth, with average hourly earnings increasing at an annual rate of 4% in September, up from the previous month and expectations of 3.8%. The monthly growth rate was 0.4%, unchanged from the previous month but higher than market expectations of 0.3%.

According to expert analysis, these data show that the demand in the labor market continues to be strong, and companies’ demand for talents continues unabated. Strong employment and wage data could put pressure on inflation and influence the Fed's monetary policy decisions. Although the employment data is strong, it is not enough to change the path of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and investors need to remain cautious.

Source: MacroMicro The U.S. unemployment rate is also lower than the previous value, indicating that labor market demand continues to be strong.

U.S. stocks rise as expectations for Fed rate cut adjust

Spurred by strong non-farm payrolls data, major U.S. stock indexes rose collectively after opening on October 4.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 341.16 points, or 0.81%, to close at 42,352.75.

• The S&P 500 gained 51.13 points, or 0.9%, to close at 5,751.07.

• The Nasdaq rose 219.37 points, or 1.22%, to close at 18,137.85.

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also rose 81.62 points, or 1.59%, to close at 5,206.84 points.

The strong employment data also affected market expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 1 percentage point (25 basis points) in November from 67.9% the previous day to 97.4%, while the probability of a rate cut of 2 percentage points (50 basis points) jumped from 32.1% to 32.1%. dropped to 5.4%.

"With the U.S. economy broadly re-accelerating, we continue to expect a 1-point cut each at the November and December FOMC meetings," Morgan Stanley said in a report.

Chart source: CME FedWatch market forecasts that the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in November has surged to 97.4%

Bitcoin market reaction is muted, investors need to be cautious

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin once rebounded to $62,010 after the release of non-farm payroll data, but then selling pressure emerged and the price fell back to around $61,000, with an increase of about 0.8% in the past 24 hours. (As of writing, the price of Bitcoin was $61,912.) Experts pointed out that strong employment data may weaken market expectations for a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, thereby affecting the performance of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Source: TradingView Bitcoin received a mediocre response after the non-farm payrolls report was released.

In addition, the recent geopolitical instability in the Middle East, such as the conflict between Israel and Iran, has also increased market uncertainty. Investors need to pay close attention to the overall economic data and the international situation, and do a good job in risk management to avoid potential losses caused by market fluctuations.

Further reading
JPMorgan Chase has seen too much! It is said that "2 keys" will be good for Bitcoin, can we expect a big surge again?
The entire network has sold out 500 million magnesium! Bitcoin once fell back to 60,000, why did it suddenly plummet?
Gold and the stock market are flying together! The U.S. M2 money supply is approaching a new high. Is it an illusion?

[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions contained in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.