Shenzhen TechFlow News, on October 5, according to CoinDesk, the investment research institution BCA Research issued a report stating that although China has launched the largest stimulus plan since 2008, it may not be able to generate as significant a "credit boom" as in 2015. Impulsive”, so the upward trend in risk assets, including Bitcoin, may be unsustainable.
BCA Research explained that "credit impulse" refers to the percentage of new credit to GDP, and has been regarded as a leading indicator of global economic growth and risk appetite since the 2008 financial crisis. In 2015, China's credit impulse reached a peak of 15.5 trillion yuan, accounting for about 15% of GDP. At that time, the CSI 300 Index more than doubled in six months, and Bitcoin also rebounded from around $100 and climbed to a high of $20,000 in the subsequent two-year bull market.
However, the current situation is very different from that in 2015. BCA Research pointed out that China's economic size has doubled compared with 2015, and to achieve a similar effect, this round of credit impulse needs to reach about 27 trillion yuan. But the recent peak of credit impulse is less than 5 trillion yuan, far below the required level.
