Over the last few days of the decline I have noticed a pattern that is repeating itself a lot and I also saw it in YouTube posts and on X. Which is that the largest liquidations and lowest prices are generated in the first week of each month since July.

So based on my analysis and due to the stage of the cycle in which in other years the bull run should have started 2 or 3 days ago, I am thinking that we could be facing a last lateral week between 58 and 65 depending on the economic news, for example today we had this rebound due to the very good data on US employment, but if throughout this weekend and next week we see some news about war or diseases, Chinese economic data or the income report of one of the Magnificent 7 we could see a daily candle up to 58 and then return to the range.

So in my opinion and experience I see less than 10% probability that we won’t see a rally towards 70k in the third week of October, and since a lot of the retail market has liquidity from having sold in August or September it’s possible that they will stay out of the market and we will start an upward movement that will take us to historical highs at $BTC

And that probably once we get there we will see a distribution of about 2 weeks while the money moves to more volatile assets like $ETH o $SOL

. Personally, I have a position of about $7,000 and I leveraged 10x on ETH because I think it could be the first one that can explode without taking a big risk since I see it unlikely that we will lose the 2,100 levels even if bitcoin falls below 58 in some flash.