U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 254,000 in September 2024, a figure above the long-term average of 125,610 from 1939 to 2024. The data historically peaked at 4.615 million in June 2020 and hit a low of -20.477 million in April 2020. This robust job growth could impact the Federal Reserve's decision on further interest rate cuts in November and December. Current market expectations, as shown by CMEâs FedWatch tool, suggest a 67% chance of a 0.25% rate cut, with lower odds for a 0.5% cut. Stronger employment numbers may reduce the likelihood of larger rate cuts.
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