Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, commented on geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East. He stated that it could be bearish, but the increasing chances of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election provide a buying opportunity for investors. Kendrick emphasized that geopolitical uncertainties could push Bitcoin below $60,000 by the end of the week, but investors should price in the decline.

Geopolitical instability and election possibilities in the Middle East

Geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East could put pressure on Bitcoin in the short term, Kendrick said. However, these pressures could increase Trump’s chances in the presidential race, creating an opportunity for Bitcoin to rally in the long term. According to Polymarket data, Trump’s chances of winning the US presidential race increased by 1% this week, while Kamala Harris’s chances fell by 1% to 49%. These developments reduce Harris’s chances of winning to 49%, while increasing Trump’s chances of winning to 50%.

Analysts believe that Trump's victory will be a positive development for cryptocurrencies and predict that Trump's participation in the Bitcoin 2024 event and his statements about the decentralized finance (DeFi) project called World Liberty will boost the crypto market. On the other hand, it is believed that Harris' victory could lead to delays in regulatory developments and put pressure on Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Could Rise After US Presidential Election

Claiming that Bitcoin does not act as a safe haven against geopolitical events, Kendrick emphasized that gold still has a role to play in this regard. He claimed that Bitcoin acts more as a hedge against the traditional financial system. He claimed that Bitcoin provides a more effective hedge, especially in the face of issues such as banking collapse, the dominance of the US dollar, or the sustainability of the US Treasury.

Kendrick also noted that medium-term optimism has increased in the Bitcoin options market, noting that there has been a significant increase in call options positioning toward $80,000 in recent days. He added that the $80,000 target for Bitcoin options expiring on December 27 suggests a 1,300 BTC gain in just two days.