Fans of the cryptocurrency circle, the big non-agricultural data is coming at 8:30 tonight!
Pay attention. If the number of new jobs exceeds 200,000, the market may rise slightly. You may think that the Fed will suspend interest rate cuts in November.
If the number of new jobs is between 160,000 and 200,000, that would be the most ideal situation. It would not affect inflation or interest rate cut expectations, and the market could continue to rise.
If the number of new jobs is between 140,000 and 160,000, the market can also rise, but the shadow of recession may still linger.
If the number of new jobs is less than 140,000, the market will really fall, and concerns about recession will increase.
Let's talk about the institutions' forecasts for the US non-agricultural data in September. Wall Street institutions have a lot of differences. Reuters survey believes that there will be about 140,000 new jobs, Citi is the most pessimistic, thinking that there will be only 70,000 new jobs, and Jefferies and other institutions are the most optimistic, thinking that there will be 200,000 new jobs.
October is not a peaceful month. There are several important events to watch:
On October 10, the US CPI data will be released. If it can drop to 2.2% as Powell said, it will be a good thing. There may be a rate cut later. Otherwise, it will be in jeopardy.
On October 17, the growth of retail sales is also very important. It can show how everyone's consumption level is.
On October 18, the CPI data of the island country will also be released. If it is high, the island country is likely to raise interest rates.
On October 30, the US GDP data must also be watched. If it is higher than 3%, the situation is very good. If PCE is high, the possibility of a rate cut is small.
Also, don't forget to pay attention to the interest rate decision of the Japanese bank. There is a high probability that the interest rate will be raised.
Finally, the situation in the Middle East and oil prices must also be watched. These two are also big players that can stir up the market.
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