Ethereum isn’t out of the woods yet! Analyst Benjamin Cowen predicts another 50% drop in ETH price in the event of a loss of ETH/BTC support.

图片



Ethereum has faced strong selling pressure, with a drop of nearly 10% on the weekly chart, and the ETH price has now fallen to $2,366. Some market analysts believe that the ETH market crash has just begun, and according to the logarithmic regression model, the ETH market may fall by another 50%.

Ethereum Regression Model Predicts Major Crash

Benjamin Cowen, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, explained using a logarithmic regression model that every time Ethereum (ETH) falls below Bitcoin's support, the ETH/USD pair falls to the lower limit of the logarithmic regression trend line, a drop of 70%. So far, ETH has fallen 41%, and people are worried that a similar situation may occur this year. Currently, the price of ETH is down 1.14% to $2,366, and its market value has shrunk by more than $50 billion in the past week.

图片



Historically, these sharp declines occurred in the fourth quarter of 2016 and the fourth quarter of 2019, suggesting that a similar pattern could occur in the fourth quarter of 2024.

While some market participants are optimistic about a potential “October rally,” some experts, such as Benjamin Cowen, warn that it’s wise to consider downside risks as well. “I think gold will fall sharply to about $1,200 by year end before rebounding in 2025,” Cowen warned in an August post.

This means that the price of Ethereum may be preparing for another 50% correction from current levels. Some market analysts have refuted Cowen’s analysis, saying that his analysis does not apply to Bitcoin’s halving. In response, Cowen wrote:

  • “In Q4 2016, ETH entered a regression range, which is a half-year decline. To be honest, the whole “but it’s a half-year decline!” argument is a bit outdated. You could have said the same thing when ETH was $4,000, but it still fell to $1,900.”

ETH price plummets as investor sentiment soars

Earlier this week, Bitcoin and altcoin prices plunged as the conflict between Israel and Iran escalated, defying all expectations for an “October rally.” Meanwhile, Ethereum ICO giants continued to sell off their holdings, indicating that long-term investors are losing faith in the asset class.

Additionally, overall inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs have been lackluster as institutional players prefer BTC over ETH amid the current market uncertainty.

Yet despite all this, co-founder Vitalik Buterin has been focused on the next big move in the ecosystem. The day before, he proposed halving the minimum ETH staking requirement to 16 ETH.